Kenyans are a worried lot as the country moves closer to the crucial 2017 general elections. The incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta will defend his seat from a spirited opposition led by the indefatigable former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
It’s high time as a country we decide to never again vote along ethnic lines but embrace the culture of voting for presidential candidates that do not come from any of the major tribal blocks. Their history of jostling for state power has caused divisions and suspicions for generations.
Although the country has made good progress in the democratization process, Wananchi would be worried because history has shown that incumbents in Africa and particularly in Kenya rarely lose an election.
In terms of political factors, the five-year mandate in power, significantly decreases the probability of the incumbent losing and in fact increases the probability of the incumbent winning.
This is in line with the fact that the appetite for power increases with the time spent in power and generally reflects the advantage of incumbency.
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Since independence, elections have been dominated by ethnic affiliation resulting in exclusion and marginalization of those affiliated with the opposition. In 2007 and 2008 the country experienced ethnic violence triggered by a disputed presidential election.
When all is said and done ahead of the 2017 general elections, millions of voters would be persuaded into ethnic voting blocks. It’s high time citizens take the middle ground and turn away from the talks of ‘tyranny of numbers’ which is achieved by rallying behind tribal chieftains running for high office.
This sad scenario leads to a president who is hostage to his ethnic group and not the state. This results in the perpetual hostility and suspicions between the majority and minority ethnic groups.
Given such a rocky past its time Kenyans discard the history of voting along ethnic lines and shop for strong presidential candidates outside of the major tribal blocks.
We as a country also need to embrace the culture of electing leaders based on issues and suitability for high office and reject candidates who whip up tribal support in their own style in pursuit of state power.
Mombasa governor Ali Hassan Joho easily comes to mind since he comes from outside the mainstream tribal communities.
The governor is on record to have said that he will vie for the presidency in 2022 and it’s my humble wish that he brings that ambition forward and run for high office in 2017.