Experts warn El Nino rains are looming, let’s be ready

Much of the world is now preparing for what is thought to be the biggest El Nino to have ever hit planet Earth. Local meteorologists say their forecasting shows an increasing likelihood of an El Nino next month, but then again, word on the street is that we have barely two weeks to the ”mother of all rains”.

Experts have said that the expected El Nino could be massive and bigger than the record-breaking 1997/98 one. Now, how about we put this in context?

The 1997/98 El Nino was estimated to have caused damage worth more than $1.2 billion in Kenya in infrastructure and crop destruction. Already, Kenya is expecting a huge maize deficit and a disruption of the world cereal markets could worsen an already precarious situation. During the 1991/92 El Nino, Kenya was forced to import grain for the first time in nearly a decade.

A repeat of El Nino will set back the country’s development agenda for several years and could be accompanied by disease outbreak, loss of lives and massive displacement of populations.

Kenya Meteorological Department had in January predicted the possibility of El Nino in the second part of the year but had not indicated its possible strength, according to a report on their website. We are already seeing signs of the rain with heavy and angry clouds hanging over our skies. It is evident that the predictions are likely to come to pass and we thus need to be prepared.

With a few weeks to July, we are yet to see the Government’s mitigation plan against the predicted El Nino. This is especially pertinent as experts globally agree that this may be the worst ever. The silence at Kenya National Disaster Operation Centre should get all of us worried. Very worried, since there has been no official communication on the impending El Nino. Is the country prepared? Has there been any civic education on the likely impact? What resources, if any, have been extended to the disaster teams across the country? Do we have enough stocks of food and medicines to address the looming disaster?

Are we waiting for deaths and destruction of property for us to respond in knee-jerk fashion? How much money has been put in the budget later this month for disaster preparation and mitigation? Should we wait to see Thika superhighway and other ‘new’ roads infrastructure, fibre optic cabling, crops, homesteads, livestock swept away and endure a fresh round of blame game between government, the Opposition and counties?

What lessons do we have from previous disasters? Who is overall in charge of disaster preparedness and response, when the time comes?  As illustrated earlier, the impact of El Nino has not been selective in the past, affecting almost every corner of this country. Therefore, what role do county governments have and has whoever is responsible, nationally, set up liaison mechanisms with the counties?

We know that such heavy rains are likely to be followed with a long period of drought. So how are our food reserves like? Can we be able to feed those affected for a sufficient enough period until food production stabilises?

With the recent calls for national dialogue on the issues affecting Kenyans, we should demand to be given the El Nino mitigation/preparedness plan. History is not kind to us as it shows we have little or no structures to handle major disasters well. Worse still, ours is still a poor country relying on foreign direct investment, heavily reliant on imports, low revenues from the export of unprocessed goods that have little value added, an obsession with safari tourism that is prone to travel advisory pin-pricks, and now at the mercy of the fury of Mother Nature.

We must not just think outside the box this time, but go a step farther and kick away the box and embrace a new thinking. Only then can we say we are a nation that will overcome challenges.