Kenya may not yet be in an official campaign season, but the country is already in campaign mode. From political messaging to alliances being formed or broken every other day, it is evident that the stakes are high.
Preparing to vie for office in this country has traditionally meant two things: Financial muscle and aligning with the most popular political party or coalition. Into this already volatile mix now enters a new and dangerous challenge, the deepfake.
Deepfakes are digitally manipulated videos, audio recordings or images created using artificial intelligence to make people appear to say or do things they never did.
While once largely associated with politics in the West, deepfakes are already here with us. In the coming elections, they will play a central role not as tools for persuasion but of political warfare.
Today, it is increasingly difficult to tell what is real and what is not on the net. Even before Mama Ida Odinga spoke to confirm that she would accept her nomination as Kenya’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Environment Programme, the Internet was already awash with images of her shaking hands with the President, widely interpreted as confirmation of her acceptance. That is our present reality.
Our political culture is deeply emotive. Voters often respond more to what they hear and see than ideologies written down in statements. Here, politics is personal and this is what makes us particularly vulnerable to the threat posed by deepfakes.
Political strategists learnt long ago that messages tied to ethnicity, religion or class spread faster, provoke stronger reactions and dominate conversations.
A fabricated photo showing a leader in a place their supports would not expect them to be, a false quote attributed to a candidate allegedly insulting a community, a fake rebuttal over a sensitive public issue, none of these need any convincing to be effective. If there is just a whiff of suspicion, the fake narrative will do the damage.
Ideally, political campaigns should be about substance. Manifestos, scorecards, track records and accountability are what should guide the electorate’s discourse. In reality, such debates have been drowned out as communications teams have been reduced to fire fighters. Where they should be engaging voters on issues that matter, they spend much of their time refuting falsehoods, chasing rogue sources and managing outrage.
As campaigns intensify, deepfakes will have a field day preying on Kenyans’ love for sensationalism and it will be increasingly difficult to control the effect.
We should expect fake inflammatory statements released to coincide with major rallies or politically sensitive moments.
Institutions such as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, the police and the judiciary will also be targeted with fabricated content aimed at eroding public trust and triggering unnecessary panic.
The most damaging impact of deepfakes, however, will be on the very idea of truth itself. Once fake content becomes common, it becomes extremely difficult to defend authentic messages even with evidence.
Real recordings can easily be dismissed as AI-generated, especially when they challenge a false narrative that has already taken hold. Once truth is put on the defensive, the conversation is certainly lost.
In theory, the Computer Misuse and Cybercrimes Act, 2018, which criminalises the intentional publication of false or misleading digital content presented as authentic and the spread of the same, should apply.
However, campaign periods are unique. While a politician may rightly want to seek legal redress, opponents will be smiling all the way to the ground with the damage done. By the time the matter lands in court, the outrage on the Internet will have achieved its purpose. Deepfake thrives on virality while the law comes in only after the damage is done.
The political game has shifted. Candidates who hope to stay ahead must invest in controlling their narratives by authenticating their communications and engaging the public more in real time. Quick response to falsehood will also be key.
The public too must stay vigilant and refuse to entertain deepfakes in the name of politics. When we give false information a platform, we endanger our democracy by sacrificing the far more important issues that deserve our attention.
Ms Wekesa is a development communication consultant
