There is one truth that should unite all citizens regardless of political affiliation. No patriotic Kenyan should ever wish for a bad President. The presidency is too important. When a President succeeds, investors gain confidence, businesses expand, jobs are created, institutions strengthen and hope grows.
When a President governs poorly, everyone pays through economic pain, declining trust, weakened institutions, lost opportunities and national frustration. Democratic criticism should demand better leadership. But politics carries a paradox. Sometimes a government becomes so consumed by protecting power that it weakens itself because its own decisions erode public confidence.
Kenya appears to be approaching that moment. The Gen Z demonstrations of June 2024 should have been a turning point. Young Kenyans were rejecting more than a Finance Bill. They were protesting living costs, unemployment, corruption, taxation, police brutality and the gap between rulers and citizens. Commemorations confirmed that they remain alive.
The opposition must prepare for possibility. If Ruto goes in a year’s time, what happens next? “Ruto Must Go” can mobilise a country, unite allies and win an election. But it cannot run a country. The opposition must describe the government it intends to build.
Start with debt. Which loans will be honoured? Which will face forensic audit? How will questionable borrowing be investigated? What happens where money was stolen, misapplied or contracted unlawfully? How will Kenya stop borrowing to service borrowing?
Then confront government size. Kenya turns every public problem into bureaucracy. We create authorities, agencies, boards, councils, corporations, funds and secretariats, with chairpersons, directors, chief executives, offices, vehicles, allowances and budgets. Enormous sums then maintain institutions created to solve problems that remain unsolved.
Water proves the point. Kenya has a Ministry of Water, Water Works Development Agencies, the Water Resources Authority, the National Water Harvesting and Storage Authority and others. Still, millions lack reliable water. How many institutions are needed before water reaches the tap? Agriculture deserves the same interrogation before farmers get affordable inputs, reliable markets and fair prices.
How many youth, women and enterprise funds do we need? Would taxpayers get better value from consolidating overlapping programmes into fewer institutions with measurable outcomes? The opposition should publish a restructuring plan before the election, identify what will be abolished, merged, returned to ministries or removed from boards. Give numbers. Reform must become mathematics, not campaign poetry.
Then explain healthcare. What is the alternative to SHA? Will healthcare remain centred on compulsory deductions, layers and complicated technology, or will financing move money efficiently to hospitals treating patients? What happens to the housing levy? Should government collect from workers, commission houses, choose beneficiaries and finance projects? Where should counties, cooperatives and private developers begin?
Education needs certainty. What happens to university funding, HELB and school capitation? Parents and students cannot live inside policy experiments while universities struggle and schools wait for money. Devolution needs honesty. Counties cannot be constitutional governments on paper but financial dependants in practice. Allocated funds must be released predictably and promptly.
Corruption must be confronted differently. Kenyans do not need another government that prosecutes yesterday’s thieves while protecting today’s thieves. Every significant tender should be searchable, showing contractor, beneficial owners, price, variations, status and final payments. Pending bills must be settled. Businesses cannot supply government, pay taxes, borrow to perform contracts and wait years for payment.
The deepest reforms concern state power. What happens to the police? Will commanders still arrest opponents on demand, or will officers fear violating the Constitution more than displeasing State House? What happens to the DCI, ODPP, EACC and intelligence services? Institutions cannot be energetic against private enemies of the powerful but paralysed when connected thieves or goons are implicated.
Reform must reach State House. How many advisers, envoys, delivery units, taskforces and committees does Kenya need? How large should Cabinet be? How many principal secretaries are necessary? Must every government create positions for election losers? Political parties should finance settlements. Taxpayers should finance services. The opposition must explain taxes, electricity, fuel, manufacturing, agriculture and small businesses.
Kenya cannot tax itself into prosperity. Reducing taxes requires reducing expenditure. If the opposition wins and the next president dominates Parliament, intimidates institutions, weaponises police, influences prosecutors, appoints friends, expands patronage and borrows without restraint, Kenya will not have changed its system. It will have changed beneficiaries.
Removing one President is an event. Changing how Kenya is governed is a revolution. Ruto may go. Another President may enter State House, with celebrations and promises. But if bloated government survives, patronage continues, institutions remain captured, borrowing resumes and another group gathers around the national cake, nothing fundamental will change. Kenya will prepare for the next “Must Go” movement.
