Al Shabaab militants aim softer targets

By Lillian Aluanga

In less than a month, suspected Al Shabaab militants have killed a tourist and kidnapped two others in Lamu, one of Kenya’s most popular tourist destinations.

In the first incident, British national, Mr David Tebbutt was shot and his wife Judith kidnapped at the remote Kiwayu Resort by gunmen believed to be from the al Qaeda linked group. Two weeks ago French tourist Marie Didieu was snatched from her cottage on Manda Island by gunmen who escaped towards Ras Kamboni in Somalia. Two Spanish aid workers at the Daadab refugee camp are the latest victims believed to have been kidnapped by members of the militant group.

The incidents, while renewing security concerns in the region, point to a change of tack by the militant group responsible for the 2010 twin bombings in Kampala, Uganda, and attacks on African Union Mission for Somalia (Amisom) troops in Mogadishu.

While the kidnappings are being viewed as a shift towards ‘softer targets’ by the militant group, there is no doubt of the effect its having on Kenya’s multi billion tourism industry at the Coast.

But just why has Al Shabaab chosen to pursue this line of attack?

Dr Mohammed Ali, a consultant on governance, peace and security studies in the Horn of Africa region says it is important to understand that the militant group has been fighting on two fronts; in Somali’s capital Mogadishu, and against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces stationed along the Kenya-Somalia border, especially around areas like Mandera and Doble.

Tactical withdrawal

"Al Shabaab made a tactical withdrawal from Mogadishu to avoid the heavy confrontation with Amisom forces. It is the effect of this withdrawal that we are now seeing along our borders because the group is keen on making an impact and recovering areas previously lost to TFG forces," says Ali.

International relations lecturer David Kikaya says the group’s latest approach follows a properly demarcated road in terrorism, where groups seek to "glamourise" their actions for maximum effect.

"Terrorism thrives on negative publicity. Al Shabaab has moved away from hotspots like Mogadishu to avoid protracted battles with Amisom, to the outskirts. It, however, remains active to remind the public that it’s still around hence the kidnappings being witnessed in Lamu," says Kikaya.

World attention

According to the United States International University lecturer, although the kidnappings may appear as attacks on softer targets, Al Shabaab is using them to send a message, as well as get attention from the international community.

Says Ali: "Al Shabaab may have been pushed out of Mogadishu, for now, but it still retains its leadership and military equipment which means it can still choose when and where to pick a fight."

Other experts are also of the view that enhanced security on Somali’s waters, which are classified as some of the world’s most dangerous, has tightened the noose around piracy, narrowing options for pirate gangs with links to the militant group.

"You cannot rule out the possibility that resources at this point for Al Shabaab could be a problem and that the kidnappings could provide an easier and faster way to make money. If it is true that the group is linked to Al Qaeda, then its possible that recent killings of top leaders like Osama bin Laden may have affected their operations," says Rtd Captain Simiyu Werunga of the African Centre for Security and Strategic Studies.

Werunga, however, argues the kidnappings may also be a sign that all is not well within the leadership of the militant group, which may lead to rogue elements committing acts in the name of Al Shabaab but without necessarily getting the blessings of those who form the core of the group.

But Ali discounts this assertion and says there is so far no evidence of a major fallout within the leadership of Al Shabaab.

"I cannot say with certainty that there is a split within Al Shabaab because it would have by now degenerated into open factional fighting. But it is true that there could be differences in operational issues, for instance how to approach certain political and military issues," says Ali.

Kikaya cautions against slackening security in other areas that were previously considered targets of the militant group.

Serious threat

"Just because Al Shabaab is now kidnapping tourists at the Coast does not mean that it has run out of targets in urban areas like Nairobi," he says.

While it is true that porosity of the Kenya-Somalia border has further complicated efforts to wipe out the militant group there has also been concern that Kenya’s armed forces have taken a ‘softer approach’ in dealing with the group as compared to Ethiopia and Uganda, which have been more aggressive in pursuing Al Shabaab.

"Ethiopia’s approach towards Somalia and Al Shabaab by extension is largely for geopolitical reasons given the long standing rivalry between the two countries that stretches back to the 15th Century," says Ali.

Peace initiatives

"Kenya on the other hand has chosen to tread carefully on the issue because it has been involved in brokering peace initiatives whose by-product include the Transitional Federal Government," adds Ali.

But the sending of troops by Ethiopia and Uganda into Mogadishu has not been without criticism by some quarters that view it as a move by the two nations to deflect attention from their domestic problems by cosying up to the international community as allies in fighting terrorism within the region.

Arguments have also been advanced to have Al Shabaab and the TFG arrive at workable solutions for peace but those who argue it would give legitimacy to a terrorist group have also shot down this view.