An observant alien bystander would call the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) one of three things: hopelessly incompetent, devastatingly devious or painfully naïve. A more discerning onlooker would, however, rule out the second description, because our electoral agency barely looks clever enough to be purposefully deceptive.

This leaves us with two things; the commission is hopelessly incompetent; meaning it has no idea what it is doing, or painfully naïve; meaning it is well-intentioned but politically inept, which opens it up to exploitation. In my view, it is hopelessly incompetent and painfully naïve.

Because of this, the IEBC is leading us to a ‘casino-style’ election- where the process is planned and run purely based on chance. I say this because we are less than 60 days to the election, yet the commission has no idea where ballot papers will come from, it is suffering from a severe financial deficit, and has cases pending in court. All this amidst strict legislative timelines. This IEBC is reminiscent of its ancestor, the defunct ECK. When ECK’s day of judgement came after the 2007 elections, Judge Johann Kriegler submitted the following findings: First, that the constitutional and regulatory framework for holding elections was fraught with gaps. Second, that the electoral agency lacked the necessary capacity and functionality because of weakness in organisational structure, composition and management systems. Moreover, that the institutional credibility of the ECK were gravely impaired and that the commission was unable to discharge its mandate professionally.

And indeed, Samuel Kivitu told us: “When you ask me whether Kibaki won fairly or not, you ask me a very difficult question because fairly means all the processes must be right and I DON’T KNOW whether they were all right! I announced what was brought to me as the chairperson”

This shaky verdict, a bitter 10-year ghost from the electoral commission’s past, may emerge from the shadows and haunt us again. Now, in 2017, whether the IEBC will at the very least dispense its functions is a matter of ‘possibility’, instead of ‘probability’. The realm of possibility is where matters are left to fate; to the ‘gods of electoral processes’. Probability on the other hand is based on order, mathematical prediction, and a level of certainty. That is why I say that today’s electoral commission, the IEBC, is leading us to a ‘casino election’. But remember also, that in a casino, the house always wins.

So in this case, who is the house, and what is their definition of winning? For once, the government is NOT the house. It would benefit the least from an election that is botched by incompetence and naïvety. The government’s intention is obviously to remain in power; but an incompetent IEBC jeopardises this. Why? Because the outcomes from an incompetent, naïve commission can only be the following: an election cancelled on technical grounds, an election halted due to unpreparedness, a constitutional crisis due to a breaching of set timelines. And what would the result be? A caretaker government or a coalition. Both are unfavourable arrangements for the present government, since it would necessitate ceding of all, or some power.
As Sherlock Holmes would say: “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”

This therefore leaves one other suspect; the Opposition. Let’s make assertions then examine the evidence. Assertion one; the incompetence and naivety of the electoral commission are engineered. A ‘clueless’ IEBC was in the Opposition’s design. It was, after all, the Opposition that called for the last-minute disbandment of the IEBC, making way for the installation of novice commissioners. Sure enough, the commission’s hallmark has so far been confusion. Assertion two: it was thereafter that the ‘weak’ IEBC was besieged by a barrage of litigation, once again from the Opposition. The cases set the commission back in terms of timeline, and threw further confusion into the mix.

Assertion three is predictive, and is based on the first two. Keeping with the casino theme, the Opposition has an ‘ace in the hole’; a secret legal weapon that it is hiding until it is absolutely necessary to wield. It will probably be unleashed just when it is too late for IEBC to do anything about it. For one, lawyer James Orengo might reveal a constitutional deadlock that will send the IEBC whimpering. Who knows.

I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a deviously deceptive IEBC. Let us not forget that IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati himself was once an ODM candidate. Just saying.

 —The writer is a PhD candidate in Political Economy at SMC University and a Research Fellow at Fort Hall School of Government. dmaritim.tch@gmail.com