If elections were to be held today, President Uhuru Kenyatta would still be the man to beat in the tight race for State House.
This, according to a survey by research firm Ipsos, is despite Opposition leader Raila Odinga significantly closing the gap on Uhuru's lead.
The latest survey by Ipsos suggests that the President would win with 48 per cent of the vote against the NASA presidential flag bearer's 42 per cent.
The new figures, compared to a previous release in February, show that although Uhuru's popularity has somewhat remained stable - with a marginal increase of one per cent, his competitor in the Opposition has gained ground strongly.
In the February survey by the same firm, Uhuru had a 47 per cent advantage against Raila.
At the time, Raila had a 30 per cent preference as a presidential aspirant under the now defunct CORD outfit, with Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka recording 13 per cent.
However, in the latest survey released yesterday, the formation of NASA and the stepping down of co-principals Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka for Raila seem to have paid off.
A combination of Raila as the presidential candidate and Kalonzo as his deputy increased Raila's popularity by 12 per cent.
The increase, according to Ipsos lead researcher, Tom Wolf, was brought about by the majority of NASA supporters making up their mind - in the February survey, the figure of undecided individuals who had expressed interest in voting for Raila stood at 18 per cent.
Many baskets
"NASA seems to have succeeded in keeping their votes that were previously in many baskets in one basket. However, it has to be noted that Uhuru's numbers have not gone down either," said Mr Wolf.
He noted that while Uhuru won the previous election with 50 per cent plus one, it is not clear why his popularity still staggers at the same level despite being the incumbent.
"One would expect that their prevalence should be 70 per cent," said Wolf.
The tight figures on the presidency were also replicated in the political outfit, with most Kenyans feeling close to Jubilee Party being 45 per cent against NASA's 41 per cent.
The figure is high in Central region at 86 per cent for Jubilee while for NASA it is high in Nyanza with 78 per cent.
Asked if they think there is any political party that actually represents the interests of "ordinary Kenyans", half (51 per cent) of all respondents answered in the affirmative, with an advantage of Jubilee at 57 per cent and NASA at 51 per cent.
The Uhuru-Ruto Jubilee team's strong zones are Central at 88 per cent, Eastern at 51, North Eastern (57) and Rift Valley (63). For NASA, the strong zones are Coast at 59 per cent, Nairobi at 51, Nyanza at 76 and Western (58).
Interestingly, in the research that was carried out between May 11 and 23, if elections were held among individuals who are not registered voters, then Raila would beat Uhuru hands down with 48 per cent against 39 per cent.
When the voting intention was asked across political party supporters, the loyalty to the Uhuru–Ruto team was witnessed at 90 per cent while NASA had 86 per cent.
However, while some eight per cent of Kenyans are still undecided, four per cent of Jubilee followers said they would vote for NASA while five per cent of NASA supporters said they would vote for Jubilee in the presidential race.
