By the end of today, USA will get a new president. It could be Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. It does not matter who wins, the fact is that Donald Trump has changed American politics, maybe forever. He has said what an ordinary American does not want to say, and said it loudly.

His secret is to reach out to the American instincts, remind them of the good old days, not so different from the Brexit campaign. There must be a number of psychologists working in his campaign team. Trump seems to have profiled the thinking of ordinary Americans and connected with them, their fears, dreams and aspirations. No wonder his greatest appeal is the rural conservative areas.

He has focused on issues, deeply ingrained in the American psyche. His connection to black Americans is a hit. He has stirred the working class, which lost heavily from de-industrialisation. The site of once vibrant Bethlehem steel mill in Pennsylvania is testimony to that golden industrial age.

Trump appeals to that industrial age, when smoke stacks were common, and lots of jobs. His reference to China as taking over jobs strikes a chord too. The USA superpower status can only be challenged by China. There is no doubt Americans buy lots of products made in China every day.

The Putin factor in US elections has been an undercurrent. Putin has successfully exploited the past to cement his grip on power. It is unlikely that Americans would admit in public that the Russian president has been influencing the US elections, through email leaks.

Trump knows that illegal immigrants are not popular, demeaning them strikes a chord, and after all, they are fewer than voters. It does not matter that Americans are mostly immigrants. Against all expectations, Trump has come this far, to the ballot box.

admire the corrupt

The fall of stock prices in Asia after his poll numbers went up show the global concern for his presidency. The involvement of President Obama in attacking Trump shows how seriously Americans at high echelons of the society take the possibility of his triumph. Who thought Brexit would win? Who thought Obama would become the 44th US president?

Enough digression. Will Kenya have a Trump? This is a question a friend asked recently, while talking about the prospects of a Trump presidency. To get a Trump, there must be core issues to galvanise the country and its soul. Some argue issues like corruption could spawn a Trump. But corruption may not, because Kenyans secretly admire the corrupt and long for their turn to eat.

The corrupt are heroes to their communities. We admire the rich and affluent and nowadays, we don’t care much how you make your money. Once you make it, you can even be voted in as MP, MCA or any other position that has power and influence.

What other issue would galvanise us together? We lack long history like USA, with wells of anger to draw emotions from. UhuRuto cleverly used the ICC to rally us together and won in 2013, despite the dispute. Issues that tie us together are few, except trying to get rich or become celebrities, among the youth.

What of joblessness among the youth? That is definitely a great issue to base Trumpism. But the modern youth seems to have realised they can create jobs and no longer wait for the government. Some argue comically that the rise of ‘sponsorship’ makes joblessness more bearable. That sponsorship includes from parents, because we have fewer children nowadays.

unifying issues

Great issues like immigration and de-industrialisation are not part of our national psyche. We welcome foreigners with open arms and ICT has shifted us from agrarian to post industrial age. And unlike US, our past has not been that glorious. We have failed to promote Mau Mau to the same level as USA war of independence. We have no direct competitors to rattle us the way China keeps US awake.

Colonialism and uhuru, which used to rally us together have faded from our minds. Noted how UK has become a popular destination for higher education?

Apart from lack of great unifying issues, we have enough divisive issues that pull us away from each other. Look at the coalitions forming towards 2017. Tribe is still a factor in our politics, and political dynasties have controlled politics and ring fenced it so well that a Trump would find no space.

Some could argue we already have a Trump among the political contestants and we don’t need another one. What do you think?

The 2010 Constitution is another factor that would make it hard to get a Trump. Power was dispersed so much that everyone is powerless. That is one reason why corruption is thriving. We admire Pombe Magufuli, please look at the Tanzania constitution.

My bet is that Hillary Clinton will win by a whisker, but Trump will remain a force to reckon with. In the unlikely event that Trump wins, don’t worry, the traditions of the American constitution, politics and reality will moderate him.

Noted how UK is quiet after Brexit? The reality has set in, after the exuberance of voting out of European Union has subsided. The same will happen in America. — The writer is senior lecturer, University of Nairobi. xniraki@gmail.com