By Jackson Okoth

Contrary to popular thinking, Kenya may not benefit much if the referendum taking place in Sudan results in the split of Africa's largest country into two.

The creation of Africa’s 54th country could, however, turn out to be a major disappointment, considering the fact that apart from the political goodwill that unites Kenya and Southern Sudan, not enough, if any effort has been invested in the development of infrastructure to help Kenyans tap into the economic opportunities created by Africa’s newest nation.

The general perception is that Kenya stand to benefit a great deal economically if the ongoing referendum in Sudan results in separation of Africa’s largest country into two.

Expectations can be both a blessing and a curse! When you meet people’s expectations, they’re generally very grateful-a blessing. If you fail to meet those expectations, they may tell everyone about their disappointment, and be slow to offer forgiveness-a curse.

Incidentally, Kenya appears to have done little to use its position as the key peace broker to enhance trade between Southern Sudan and itself. Southern Sudan is one of the regions rich in crude oil deposits and minerals. The larger Sudan, Africa’s biggest country, also boasts of one of the fastest growing economies in the world. While the region has enormous resources and potential, it is its political landscape that has captured the world’s attention.

Long journey

The ongoing referendum is part of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that was signed in Kenya between the Sudanese government led by President Omar Al Bashir and the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM)) led by the late John Garang. It was the culmination of a long journey that started in Frankfurt Germany in December 1991 and January 1992 where the North and South met to decide the future of the country.

While the late Garang wanted a united but secular state, Northerners insisted on an Islamic state. It was agreed that all work towards the unity of the country failure to which the Southerners would eventually seek self-determination.

The seven-year period has elapsed under the CPA and now people of Southern Sudan are voting in a referendum to determine whether they will be part of the greater Sudan or seek self-determination and form a government as a different political entity.

Ironically, in the seven years to the run-up to the referendum, the Kenyan authorities have done little to strategically position the country to benefit from the economic windfall of the split. The current economic links the country enjoys are personal and corporate initiatives of companies and individuals without much support from Government.

Infrastructure, a critical aspect that could guarantee closer links with Southern Sudan remains poor, worse that it was seven years ago and the counties bordering this widely believed important partner, including the vast Turkana region remains remote as ever before and it is hard to expect much from Southern Sudan when everything that can ensure the high expectation are met is lacking.

Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, Southern Sudan economy will continue to rely on the North and it could probably take ten years or more for Kenya to put her house in order (in terms of infrastructure) before it could reap any benefit from the new African country.

Analysts believe that Kenya had a better chance if only it started acting on these shortcoming seven years ago when the peace deal was signed.

Against the high expectations, Kenyans should not expect a miracle as all too often, it seems, expectations are inflated at the outset of a relationship and dashed when the transaction’s completed. If expectations are managed properly at the start, it’s easier to avoid this scenario.

Construction of the Juba-Gulu-Tororo Lamu link is not expected to create any hostility between North and South Sudan should the referendum vote favour self-determination. The South Sudan administration has insisted that it will still continue to use the pipeline in North Sudan as its export route. Available figures indicate that there are between 3- 3.5 million Southern Sudanese living in North Sudan.

There is also a large population of the North Sudanese living in South Sudan mainly as merchants and traders. Northerners are being encouraged to integrate and set up businesses with the South Sudanese who are predominantly the Dinka and the Nuer and who have traditionally been herders and are therefore not business oriented. Probably, in ten years, the current tense relations with the North may subside, hence locking out Kenya’s ambitions as the preferred trading partner.

While oil-rich but landlocked South Sudan has been keen to have a modern railway linking it to the port of Lamu, considered the region’s shortest route to the sea, Kenya has been dragging its feet in building a second port at Lamu.

"We are looking at various options the outcome of the referendum notwithstanding. The link between Juba and Lamu happens to be the shortest route we have to the sea," Dr Costello Garang Ring Lual, a special advisor to the President of Southern Sudan, said.

Parallel line

Although South Sudan’s initial plan was to construct a railroad between Juba to Lokichoggio, then to Rongai before putting up a parallel line to Mombasa, these plans have since changed. It is now looking at the Juba- Gulu-Tororo link and a parallel line to the yet to be constructed Lamu port.

At present, South Sudan has a rail link with Port Sudan in the North where it takes more than two weeks for imported goods from the port to reach Juba. As South Sudan votes in the referendum, focus remains on whether Kenya can fix its old colonial and dilapidated railway line, considered by many a museum piece, and provide South Sudan with an alternative route to the sea.

Southern Sudan has already finalised plans to build a faster and more modern rail linking its capital Juba to Uganda’s Gulu and Tororo region. This development has put pressure on Kenya to modernise its railway and construct a new port in Lamu.

A tender inviting international bidders for construction of the Lamu port has been already been closed. "I have got a brief from authorities here concerning the Lamu port. It is still unclear who will construct the port. But it will need a modern railway link to function," said Garang.

Available tender details indicate the Kenya Government’s intention to develop the Lamu Port-Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor as one of the flagship projects identified in the Kenya Vision 2030. The corridor will link the envisaged Lamu port with Ethiopia and Southern Sudan through the Eastern and Northern parts of Kenya. Highly placed sources close to the South Sudan administration disclosed that with the world moving Eastwards, the port of Lamu is strategic both politically and economically for the Eastern African region, and presents the most appropriate entry to Africa. This is compared to Port Alexandria in Egypt, Cape Town in South Africa or Lagos in Nigeria.

In the first phase, Kenya plans to construct the first three berths with associated infrastructure at Manda Bay, Lamu.

The firm that wins the tender will undertake dredging works and construction of the first three berths to accommodate design ships with capacities of 100,000 Dead Weight Tonnage (DWT), 30,000 DWTs and 100,000 DWTs for container cargo, general cargo and bulk cargo respectively. The work also involves construction of associated infrastructure for the three berths such as access roads, railway sidings, warehouses and buildings among others.

It is still unclear when the Lamu port will be ready. Interestingly, the ThyssenKrupp, a German firm doing design and supervision of the Juba-Gulu-Tororo railway link, has ruled out the possibility of upgrading the Kenya-Uganda railway and recommends construction of a new line instead.

This position has brought into focus, the fate of Rift Valley Railways (RVR)-the consortium that runs the Kenya-Uganda Railway. Sources disclose that vested interest groups have slowed down Kenya’s efforts to have a modern railway line linking the rest of East Africa to the Indian Ocean.

The clock is ticking and construction work is expected to begin anytime on the Juba-Gulu link, a new rail passing through a hilly area composed of hills and valleys. "The experience of Russians in building underground tunnels to pass through this Great Rift Valley area, will therefore be invaluable," said Garang.

High speed

Mosmetrostroy is the Russian firm that will be doing the construction of Juba-Gulu-Tororo railway. The first phase will be from Tororo to Gulu, the project costing$3 billion — $2.5 billion for construction and $0.5 billion for wagons, covering a distance of 725 kilometres. This railway line exists but is dilapidated and not viable for commercial use in its current form. It will involve the rehabilitation of the railway line to a modern high-speed track. The second phase is from Gulu (Uganda) to Juba (South Sudan) at a cost of $ 4 billion. At present, there is no railway line here and a new, modern high-speed track is to be constructed. Phase one and two are high-speed railway lines. The commuter trains will be traveling at speeds of 160kmph while the cargo trains will be traveling at 120kmph.

With the line connecting Juba to Gulu and Tororo being a modern rail, Kenya has no option but to also put up a new standard gauge to accommodate faster trains from South Sudan and Uganda.

While Southern Sudan has an option of building a railway line from Juba, through to Ethiopia and then Djibouti, it has since abandoned it. Instead, the one from Juba, through Uganda to Kenya, is what will be given priority. This choice is attributed to historical ties between South Sudan and Uganda and Kenya, the two countries that played a critical role in during the war in Sudan.n