As the country celebrates the first anniversary of the signing of the National Accord, let’s reflect and find out why Northern Kenya and other arid regions, long synonymous with conflict, remained relatively peaceful during post-election violence.
A number of reasons have been adduced as to why Northern Kenya was not sucked into the turmoil. First, the crisis was not entirely about the disputed presidential election results.
This is not to infer the North Frontier Districts (NFD) overwhelmingly voted for PNU or ODM. To be fair, NFDs voted for both President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga in almost equal terms, albeit slightly in favour of the latter.
Access to, and control of the increasingly limited economic resources, particularly arable land, was the main cause of crisis in Rift Valley and parts of Coast provinces that bore the brunt of the skirmishes. On the other hand, NFD are largely arid and semi-arid, a low potential and less attractive swathe of land in a country that survives on rain-fed agriculture.
The barrenness of NFD never attracted a sizeable immigrant community and so there was really nobody to chase away in order to ‘recover stolen land’.
Immigrant communities
Second, the post-election crisis was hinged on the erroneous belief that ‘immigrant’ communities took most of the economic opportunities and jobs that should have been reserved for the ‘natives’.
This was the hype in Coast, Rift Valley, Western and Nyanza provinces, again provinces most hit by the skirmishes and, interestingly, were rooting for a majimbo form of governance. In NFD, years of State neglect and lack of meaningful investments coupled with virtual absence of a cosmopolitan population spared the region the orgy of post-election mayhem.
Third, and closely related to economic opportunities, were the stakes involved in the outcome of the electoral process. Previous experiences with post-colonial Governments informed the residents of Northern Kenya to expect little or no help from the Government especially when your numbers are insignificant in a winner-take-all form of governance.
Northern Kenya communities had little stake in the outcome of the tallying process, in sharp contrast with communities such as the Kikuyu, Luo or Kalenjin.
Fourth, inter-ethnic conflicts in NFD have made ethnic groups in the region permanent enemies with little time and passion to indulge in what is going on elsewhere in the country.
During the crisis, the Pokot were more concerned with cattle rustling escapades of the Turkana, Karamojong, Sabiny and the Marakwet. In the same vein, the Garre were more concerned about the new found Murulle-Marehaan alliance while the Borana were busy keeping tabs on the Gabbra.
Consequences
Conflicts and its consequences in NFD have largely been neglected. Between 1994 and 2004, more than 300,000 pastoralists were displaced with several thousand deaths reported.
Post-election violence, therefore, made conflict a national issue in Kenya that needs to be addressed and not just a problem of Northern Kenya, as the dominant discourse had been prior to January 2008.
{Dominic Pkalya, via e-mail}
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