Firewood are piled up on a donkey-pulled carts to be sold at the Dadaab refugee complex, northeastern Kenya, on April 18, 2018. [AFP]
But recurrent and sporadic violence, defections within Jubaland's security forces coupled with Madobe's inability to maintain discipline or professionalism within his ranks has rendered the strategic partnership increasingly untenable.
With the Federal Government of Somalia seemingly gaining strategic momentum, Kenya signaled a significant shift when President William Ruto indicated his administration's intention to work with Mogadishu.
Nairobi began to align its strategy with that of Mogadishu, acknowledging that stability could not be achieved under the current leadership in Kismayo, which is considered to be Jubaland's capital city.
By May this year, Kenya reaffirmed its recognition of the Federal Government of Somalia as the sole and legitimate authority responsible for administering the affairs of Somalia, including its breakaway regional administrations, Somaliland among them.
"To advance the partnership, Kenya will maintain contact and relations with sub-national governments in Jubaland and Somaliland and, in consultation with the Federal Government of Somalia, establish contact and diplomatic presence as may be agreed from time to time to support security cooperation and commercial interests in line with the principles of mutual respect and good neighbourliness," said the State Department of Foreign Affairs in a statement.
Madobe has been in power for 14 years having been re-elected in in November 2024 after receiving 55 votes out of the total 75 votes cast by Jubaland legislators.
His rivals in the presidential race, Abdullahi Ali, Abi Rage and Elias Gabose rejected the elections. The Somali Federal Government is pushing for universal suffrage set for this year.
The federal government wants federal member states among them Somaliland, Puntland, Khatumo, Galmudug, Hirshaabelle, South West and Jubaland to participate in the elections. But Madobe is not interested.
In his acceptance speech, Madobe emphasised the need for continued reconciliation among the people of Jubaland. He reiterated that since 2013, his administration has faced serious opposition, including armed violence.
He blamed the Somali Federal Government for orchestrating instability, asserting that Jubaland is part of Somalia, and not Kenya or Ethiopia.
He accused President Hassan using of military force to destabilise Jubaland and provoke civil war in the region while at the same time disrupting efforts to combat Al-Shabaab.
However opposition leader Dr Ali, blames Madobe for the war in Beled-Hawa, claiming it is Jubaland forces who initially took pre-emptive attacks against federal forces.
"The on-going conflict in Beled-Hawa could and should have been avoided. The attempt by Ahmed Madobe to cling to power through unlwafull means threatens not only the stability of Jubaland, but also the wider Horn of Africa region. His continued stay in office lacks legitimacy, as he has lost the confidence of the people of Jubaland and support of key security forces," said Ali.
He is calling on Kenya to work constructively with the Federal Government of Somalia, Ethiopia, and other regional stakeholders towards a peaceful and democratic transition of power in Jubaland.
"No individual should be allowed to jeopardize the peace and regional stability for personal gain. the future of Jubaland and the security of neighbouring countries including Kenya, depend on a legitimate, inclusive, and democratic process," added Ali.
ALSO READ: Repatriation of Somali refugees could take years, UNHCR warns
Omar Sheikh, a Kenyan governance expert, however, expressed disappointment at the approach taken by Kenya, saying the direct support of Federal Government of Somalia, might heighten rather than deescalate the conflict.
"Kenya should take a leading role in restoring peace, her partisan involvement will be detrimental to us. One, there shall be an influx into the country of refugees fleeing from Somalia, and secondly, Al Shabaab, which has been lying low for about three, will disrupt security in Garissa, Wajir and Mandera counties," said Omar.
The conflict intensified last month when two military choppers carrying senior officials among them Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur landed in Balad Hawo town, which is close to the Kenyan border.
Formerly the minister of Security in the Jubaland administration, Hassan defected and was appointed Federal Government Somalia's head of intelligence for Gedo - a move that fueled the violent confrontations.
Before the fall-out, the two forces had been fighting against Al Shabaab together. But the federal government has forged a different path, and now accuses Madobe of orchestrating the fighting.
The war has already claimed the life of Colonel Hussein Giif, the Jubaland police chief for Gedo in an assault by Federal Government of Somalia forces that left Several Jubaland soldiers dead and others injured at Tuulo Amiin village.
During the ambush targeting a miliary camp, some Jubaland soldiers managed to escape, fleeing to Kenya and Ethiopia.
Madobe's apparent loss of legitimacy has been compounded by an erosion of financial and political support. It is understood, suspension of federal funding has deprived Jubaland of essential resources.
While international partners - once willing to engage with the semi-autonomous administration, have started to disengage, preferring to channel aid and political collaboration through Mogadishu.
Reports from the ground indicate many local administrations in Gedo - one of Jubaland's most strategically important regions, have switched allegiances, abandoning Madobe and opting to report directly to the federal government.
This collapse of loyalty in Gedo underscores the waning influence of Madobe, a man who for over a decade projected himself as the strongman of southern Somalia.
While the Federal Government of Somalia is in control of Gedo, the Jubaland administration remains entrenched in the Lower Juba towns of Kismayo, Afmadow, and Dobley.