Kenya is among African countries that are likely to experience heavy rains from October to December due to the El Nino climate phenomenon as stated by Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Centre(ICPAC).
In a statement from the 65th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum on August 22, the weatherman predicted a possible heavy downpour in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA).
“Notably, there is an exceptionally high forecast probability (above 80 percent) of experiencing wetter than normal rainfall conditions in the eastern parts of the region, encompassing southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia,” ICPAC stated.
The predictions further show that isolated areas of southwestern Uganda and southwestern South Sudan, are likely to have drier-than-average conditions.
There is likely to be moderate to severe rainfall in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia in the period of October to December 2023.
Northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania are likely to receive delayed rainfall.
The other listed regions will experience moderately wet conditions with a higher expectation of above-normal rainfall.
People living in flood-prone areas are advised to be on the lookout to avoid being affected by heavy rains.
However, the report shows there will be a warmer-than-average surface temperature in nearly all parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
Similarly, Djibouti, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and parts of coastal Tanzania are likely to experience warmer-than-average temperatures.
In contrast, parts of eastern Kenya and the bordering areas between Kenya and Somalia will get cooler than normal conditions.
The predictions are in line with the recent Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) that stated that there is a high-probability warning for El Niño conditions in the country from October to December.
"The tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state. El Nino conditions are expected to persist until the rainfall season of October to December 2023 and may extend into the November to January season," Kenya MET noted.
Kenya’s previous experience with El Niño in 1997 led to exceptionally heavy rainfall and devastating floods, a combination of El Niño and a positive IOD.
