Why we are unlikely to have a re-run in the 2017 poll

Last week Infotrack released an opinion poll that suggested that if polls were held today, president Kenyatta would lead with 48% of the vote, followed by NASA flag bearer Raila Odinga at 43%.

Many people have suggested that this suggests a likelihood of a runoff. From a statistical point of view that chance is extremely slim. Here is why.

A runoff would be very likely where there is a strong '3rd force' in an election. The election this year is clearly, as many have said, a two horse race.

Mr. Dida, who polled third in the opinion poll would only manage 0.5%. We can actually say the strong 'third force' was the undecided voters, who polled at 8%.

It is this category that will make it easy for either Mr. Odinga or Mr. Kenyatta to cross the 50% mark.

In an election, there will be no option of undecided voters. They will have to vote an aspirant, or stay at home. If they stay at home they will make the voter turnout to go lower. Let us now turn to the numbers. 

Assuming a 86% voter turnout (just as in 2013) 16, 865,824 Kenyans will vote on August 8th.

19,611,423 Kenyans are registered to vote in the election. With this turnout, a winning candidate will require at least 8,432,912 vote to be declared winner.

At 48%, Mr Kenyatta would garner 8,095,596 votes with Mr Odinga following with 7,252,304 votes (43%).

If the undecided vote (1,349,266 vote) is split in the same ratio, Mr. Kenyatta would win with 8,743,244 votes, commanding 51.84% of the vote and avoiding a run off. Mr Odinga would get 7, 823,488 votes. 

If Mr. Odinga is able to convince all the undecided voters, he will emerge the winner with 8,095,596, with 50.99% of the vote, effectively avoiding a rerun.

Whichever way you look at it, one of these candidates can easily surpass the 50% mark and therefore a runoff is highly unlike.

That said, looking at these numbers, the '70%+1' hoped for by Jubilee and the '10 million strong' propagated by NASA look like pipe dreams.