Hillary Clinton could still lose even if she wins

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has indicated he does not intend to concede, even if Republican leaders try to concede for him. Trump is already claiming the election is rigged. Don’t expect Trump to fade away quietly. He’s making plans to start Trump TV in order to give himself a platform from which he can harass President Clinton.

A close election will be interpreted to mean that Clinton won only because she is not Trump. Trump’s supporters will rally behind him and protest Clinton’s victory up to - and beyond - her inauguration in January. A landslide Clinton victory may be tough.

As a Democrat who was part of the Obama administration, she is the candidate of the status quo. The fact that Clinton would be the first woman elected President does not appear to be generating much excitement, especially among younger women.

But there’s a lot of discontent in the country and it’s not confined to Trump enthusiasts. All this year, around 70 per cent of Americans told the Gallup poll they are not satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. If Republicans had nominated a more broadly acceptable candidate - like Ohio Governor John Kasich or Senator Marco Rubio of Florida - there is a good chance Clinton would be losing.

The Clinton campaign understands that there is a market for change in the country. That’s why her husband told the Democratic convention in August, “She is the best darn change-maker I have ever known,” adding, “She always wants to move the ball forward.”

That’s what “change” means for Clinton: “...moving the ball forward,” as opposed to radical disruption. Clinton stands for incremental change. Measures to reduce inequality. To fight climate change. To resolve conflicts between minorities and the police. To create more jobs. To push back Islamic State without committing large numbers of US troops.

A sweeping Clinton victory would mean that the New America, a coalition of working women, African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans, single mothers, Jewish and Muslim voters that swept President Barack Obama into office, has finally arrived and is here to stay. It would be a message to the Republican Party. As Ohio Governor John Kasich put it, “If the Republican Party does not evolve, the Republican Party is going to die.”

One striking feature of this presidential campaign is the huge education gap. White non-college-educated voters are going two-to-one for Trump, 62 per cent to 31 per cent, according to the ABC News-Washington Post poll.

College graduates favour Clinton by more than 20 points, 55 to 34 per cent. For the first time in more than 50 years, whites with a college degree are voting Democratic, 51 to 38 per cent. To educated voters, Trump represents know-nothing politics. His supporters reject climate change as a hoax. They are suspicious of foreigners and immigrants. They are fearful of a globalised economy. They harbour racial resentment.

They believe the rest of the world takes advantage of the United States. They nurture conspiracy theories and believe this election is being hijacked by sinister forces.

A lot of Americans resent being governed by educated experts and professionals like Clinton and Obama. Resentment of the educated elite has always been a deep strain in American populism.

It emerged in 2008, when Obama spoke disdainfully about economically distressed small-town Americans who “cling to guns and religion”.

Resentment of the educated elite also drives hatred of the press. Journalists, especially national journalists, are usually well educated and have a sophisticated world view.

Educated Americans will interpret a big Clinton victory as an endorsement of their “enlightened” values. For less well-educated whites, it will confirm their sense of isolation and resentment.

There is little prospect that either Clinton or Trump can heal the divide. Two Americas, two interpretations.