By Jevans Nyabiage

Local mobile phone penetration rate could be lower than thought. This is after the Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) released statistics for the just concluded Sim card registration on Friday.

  According to operator returns to the regulator, as at December 28, 2012, there were 30.8 million subscribers. But as it emerges Kenya could be having about 25.5 million subscribers or even less considering that many subscribers have multiple Sim cards.

It is evident that many mobile phone users have multiple lines, and in most instances, mobile phone operators exaggerate figures to boost their image, including even dead or inactive numbers in their tally.

Inflating numbers

The mobile operators could be inflating their subscribers’ numbers. CCK gets its numbers from the operators, but they count both active and dormant lines.

According to Information Permanent Secretary Dr Bitange Ndemo, the new law on Sim card registration will ensure all lines are accounted for and operators don’t exaggerate their figures.

CCK data shows that 3.8 million Airtel subscribers have registered their lines from a total customer base of 4.7 million, meaning nearly a million have not registered their lines.

As at Friday January 4, Orange had registered 2.1 million lines from a total base of 3.3 subscribers, which means more than 1.2 million subscribers have either not registered or just previously held the lines to take advantage of promotions.

YuMobile has registered 2.35 million lines from a subscriber base of 3.23 million, with nearly a million expected to be lost if the operators goes ahead to switch off unregistered Sim cards.

Market leader, Safaricom is expected to lose about 2.4 million subscribers, according to the latest CCK figures.

The operator, at the close of business on Friday had listed 17.2 million. It has 19.6 million subscribers including the unlisted.

CCK records

From the total number of lines that have been registered by the four operators, the mobile telephony market has 25.5 million subscribers, which is 5.3 million short from the total number of subscribers recorded at CCK.

As per CCK’s quarterly statistics, in June 2012, mobile telephony penetration was posted at 75.4 per cent in an industry with a total of 29.7 million subscribers. This penetration could be overstated.

Kenya being a dual-SIM market (where over half the subscribers own three or four lines), counting each SIM card bought could be misleading.

This means that from the current Sim card registration data released on Friday, the penetration is likely to drop by more than 10 percentage points to about 64.7 per cent. 

Case study

South Africa, Cameroon, Tanzania and Nigeria have also carried out SIM card registrations. In the South African case, one operator, Vodacom lost at least one million subscribers – that is, one million casual users who were disconnected.

The migratory users who have three SIM cards in their purses or wallets and one in their handset have been compelled to decide who is their “true love” or register all lines.