By Kap Kirwok

If Kenya’s political landscape were the setting of a movie, what would it be called? My guess is: it would probably be titled: The Apocalypse Forever. Last year, the chief feature would have been titled Tragic Political Skullduggery or The People as Cannon Fodder.

This year, it seems we will be treated to a deluge of features, with the main attraction being the contest of wills and wits between the coalition partners. There is a triple feature currently showing in theatres everywhere. It comprises a regular re-run called Corruption Chronicles and two new additions: Food and Fuel Crisis. This time round corruption has had a makeover — it has an added feature called Finger Pointing. Everyone is pointing fingers in noisy, false indignation.

And of course there are those famous scripts authored by Justice Philip Waki and Mr Johann Kriegler.

But who are the proprietors of these horror movies?

The presidency, as currently constituted, plays the role of proprietor, producer, director and main actor all rolled into one. Despite all the sound and fury, the Prime Minister plays what in the performing arts would be called a cameo role — making ‘important’ appearances. The head of the civil service is the real co-star with the President. True, his authority is delegated but it would be foolish to conclude that he is merely a marionette obeying the dictates of his puppeteer. He is subtly and cleverly exceeding his authority as many with such huge powers do — especially if the boss is a hands-off type.

Every good movie must have its requisite share of bells and whistles — including sound and light effects. Dr Alfred Mutua, the Government spokesman, is the chief special effects guy. He is responsible for the dazzling and bewitching optical and audio illusions. A promising career awaits him in the Cirque Du Soliel.

It is a pity no Oscars are awarded for all this political sarakasi (circus).

This all makes for riveting cinema and might even qualify for VF (very funny) rating were it not for its deadly consequences.

Sensory overload

A movie, however captivating, soon gets into you. Right now citizens are suffering from sensory overload. Some, like a colleague in Nairobi, are at the point of snapping. In dire tones, this man I have known for decades expressed to me his frustration with the endless stream of depressing news. His view was that the year-old Grand Coalition Government was headed for a grand implosion. He said such an eventuality is not only inevitable but portends real trouble for the country — "it could throw us back into a spiral of violence." He sounded very fearful and discouraged.

It is easy to see how dispiriting the times have become. But my take is different on the future of the grand coalition. I do not think it will collapse. It will last until at least a few months before the next General Election. The reason is simple: greed and cowardice.

None among the current political class is brave and charitable enough to risk losing the power and perks of office. No one is ready to jump off the gravy train; the biscuit on wheels that Parliament has become.

While we get distracted by all the corruption scandals and political games, big national decisions escape the scrutiny that they deserve. Such is the case with the decision by President Kibaki to lease 100,000 acres of land in Tana River delta to the Qatari Government.

On the surface, this is a well-intentioned decision that could potentially advance Kenya’s strategic interests. But why not subject the details to public debate and scrutiny? Why the apparent secrecy? And did we consider what economists call The Law of Unintended (negative) Consequences? I have in mind consequences of a political nature.

When a nation, any nation, makes a strategic investment of the magnitude Qatar plans to, it follows that it will take steps to safeguard its interests — by whatever means necessary. Such steps include, and may not be limited to, political interference. Qatar is unlikely to sit and watch helplessly if a political party — that is opposed to its interests — tries to take over power in Kenya. It might use its financial muscle to sponsor its own candidates.

Although Qatar — with a population of 824,789 — is territorially half the size of Kajiado District, it has the financial muscle. It has the highest per capita income in the world and its Gross Domestic Product is more than twice that of Kenya.

They know what they are doing. Do we? We would, if we quit making a movie called Apocalypse Forever.

—Strategybeyondprofit@gmail.com