By Edward Kisiang’ani

Sometime back, I argued that neither the Orange Democratic Movement nor the Party of National Unity could deliver the change our country needs to become a better nation.

I can hardly see a leader in both parties who could transform this country into a prosperous democracy. But my conclusion about the two parties was also informed by German philosopher F W G Hegel’s observation that history would never respect those who did not respect it.

It is now in the public domain that the competition between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Agriculture Minister William Ruto has graduated to new levels, with the latter threatening to lead fellow Kalenjin legislators in a mass walkout from the ODM party.

Ruto’s camp in ODM is unhappy with the Prime Minister’s apparent decision to support the full implementation of the Waki Report on the post-election violence. In addition, the Agriculture minister’s faction is angered by Raila’s move to press for the eviction of people who were illegally allocated land in the Mau forest.

To strengthen their case, Ruto’s supporters think that the implementation of the Waki Report would serve to lock him out of the 2012 presidential elections. Since the majority of the people to be evicted from Mau are mainly from the Kipsigis community, Ruto thinks that the Kalenjin were being targeted for victimisation.

Besides, Ruto is emphatic his people participated in the violence to protest against a stolen election and to express solidarity with Raila. On his part, Raila has indirectly accused Ruto of "receding into a tribal cocoon" by ignoring issues of national importance. But to understand the problem of the two leaders, one has to delve a little bit into history.

Second liberation

During the so-called Second Liberation of the early 1990s, both Ruto and Raila belonged to opposing camps. Ruto was not only an ultraconservative Kanu supporter but also a leading member of the Youth for Kanu (YK) 92, whose sole purpose was to enable President Moi to retain power at all costs.

As a leading critic of the Moi administration, Raila spent most of the 1980s in detention. When the clamour for multi-party democracy engulfed Kenya, Raila joined his father and other opposition leaders to found the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (Ford).

Ford’s objective was to overthrow Ruto’s Kanu from power. But soon after its inception, it found itself in devastating leadership wrangles, which resulted in the formation of two splinter groups — Ford-Asili for Matiba and Ford-Kenya for Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. The two factions epitomised the irrational and primitive ethnic rivalry between the Luo and Kikuyu. Raila supported his father’s faction and proceeded to consolidate Luo visibility in the party. In Ford-Kenya, Raila was unfriendly to politicians who attempted to disagree with his father. Those, in Nyanza Province, who challenged Jaramogi’s leadership never made it to Parliament.

Jaramogi’s death in 1994 provided Raila with a chance to force his way to the top. Desperate to inherit his own father, Raila organised an internal rebellion against the then acting chairman, Michael Wamalwa.

In the violent party elections, which followed, Raila lost to Wamalwa. This prompted him to lead Luo legislators to quit Ford-Kenya and join the National Development Party (NDP).

Historic merger

On the eve of the 2002 elections, Raila mobilised his followers again to walk out of Kanu and jump onto a new flagship — the Liberal Democratic Party. During the 2005 constitutional referendum, he broke ranks with mainstream Narc and led a rebellion against the Wako draft.

Although Ruto and Raila did not share common political ideals, they have in common this conspicuous capacity to manipulate their respective ethnic communities to enhance their political goals.

Consequently, the threat by Ruto to walk out of ODM is not unprecedented. He is about to do what Raila did to Wamalwa in 1996, Moi in 2002 and Kibaki in 2005. In all those incidents, Raila moved away with his tribe.

The Mau settlement is a damning indictment of the Moi administration, which Ruto served with dedication.

If, indeed, Ruto believes he never hurt anybody during the post-election violence, how does the implementation of the Waki Report undermine his chances of contesting for the presidency in 2012?

Raila lacks the moral standing to criticise Ruto for receding into an ethnic cocoon.

Luo legislators in ODM are so fanatical in their support for the Prime Minister that they are unable to see his shortcomings.

Raila’s brand of politics has created an ethnically intolerant electorate in Nyanza; an electorate, which shies to express political opinions, which might, ran counter to his.

Whenever there is a General Election, Raila’s opponents from other parts of Kenya have to think twice about their security before venturing into Nyanza to look for votes.

Has anybody ever wondered why Raila has been able to freely address political rallies in other parts of Kenya when his opponents could not do the same on his home turf? If Mau was somewhere in Luo Nyanza, would Raila have performed better than Ruto?

This country is crying out for a new generation of leaders who will never demolish our national agenda in favour of ethnic parochialism. It is difficult to find a truly nationalist leader in either Ruto or Raila.

—Dr Kisiang’ani teaches History and Political Studies at Kenyatta University.