Parts of Kenya to face hotter, drier conditions in October to December- forecast

Residents in Eastern and Northern Kenya should brace for hotter and drier than normal conditions between October and December.

The Western parts of Kenya, on the other hand, may experience favorable rains, according to a new forecast.

The outlook, released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and development partners during the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), attributes the expected below-average rainfall partly to a weak La Nina that is developing.

The report shows an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures across the Horn of Africa, with the strongest effect in the east.

Cooler-than-average conditions are, however, expected along cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya, as well as northwestern Sudan.

Overall, below-normal rainfall is expected across most of the region, especially in eastern areas such as southern Ethiopia. In contrast, above-normal rains are forecast for parts of western areas, including southeastern South Sudan, northeastern and southwestern Uganda, northern Somalia, and parts of northern Rwanda.

The forecast also indicates a 70 percent likelihood of rainfall exceeding 300 mm in parts of western Kenya, southern Uganda, much of Rwanda and Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania.

Northwestern Kenya, southwestern Ethiopia, central to northern Uganda, Rwanda, and western Burundi show equal chances of normal to above-normal rainfall.

Meanwhile, an early to normal onset of rains is projected for southwestern Ethiopia, southern South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, much of Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of Tanzania.

Representatives from 11 member states, including Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, attended the forum.

Separately, the Kenya Meteorological Department, in a forecast issued last week, said several parts of the country would experience rainfall, including the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and northwestern Kenya.

Kenya MET had warned of heavy rains and strong winds in parts of the Rift Valley and Lake Victoria Basin, cautioning residents in Nairobi, Nakuru, Kisumu, Bomet, Kakamega, Baringo, Nyeri, Meru, Kiambu, Murang’a, Busia, Kisii, Nyamira, and other counties of possible flash floods and poor visibility.