By Stephen Makabila        
   
Even as Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta plans to unveil his party next week, Gichugu MP Martha Karua and her Gatanga counterpart Peter Kenneth have sustained their push against the tide.

The two nurse presidential ambitions but unlike the Gatundu South MP, they are yet to secure community ‘endorsement’ as the norm in Kenyan politics.

“They do not enjoy massive support like Uhuru in Central, but you cannot rule them out because they also have followers,” says Prof Munene Macharia of the United States International University.

Macharia predicts none of the presidential hopefuls in Central Kenya would carry a bloc support, and that votes will be shared on varying scales depending on how they play their cards.

“It is their right (Karua and Kenneth) to resist the Uhuru wave in the region and they seem focused and organised,” added Macharia.

President of the African Policy Institute Peter Kagwanja likens the Uhuru wave in Central today to the Kenneth Matiba wave of 1992 during the first multi-party elections.

Voting patterns
“It is a new phenomenon of ethnicising Central Kenya politics. It will change the voting pattern and make Karua and Kenneth almost politically irrelevant in the region, but whether it works at the national platform is another thing,” added Kagwanja.

Head of Political Science at the University of Nairobi Adams Oloo says Uhuru is likely to carry the day in Central if he would be on the presidential ballot. “Uhuru can take higher votes but Karua and Kenneth will also have some percentage, as well as Internal Security Minister George Saitoti and even PM Raila Odinga who has been marketing himself there,” added Oloo.

Friends of Raila 2012 (Fora) Secretary-General Eliud Owalo says the PM’s campaign lobby would step up vote hunting in Central Kenya.

Kagwanja says if Uhuru does not contest the presidency, then most likely the beneficiarers would be Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Saitoti and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.

“The three have all tested the VP’s office which is closer to the top seat. Ethically, they do not threaten anyone,” added Kagwanja.

He added: “Without Uhuru as a candidature, Central Kenya will have to play the kingmaker role.”
Apart from Karua and Kenneth, other presidential hopefuls in the region are Gachoka MP Mutava Musyimi of Embu County and former Kabete MP Paul Muite (Safina) of Kiambu County.

Karua and Kenneth have been more visible, tactfully avoiding restricting themselves within Central Kenya, and instead moving around the country to lobby support.

Mutava has also formally launched his presidential bid, and having served as former National Council of Churches of Kenya Secretary General, he may have enough national links to depend on.

Muite has remained a pro-reform crusader, a credential that could be lacking in others, and which may boost his chances nationally. Karua, who resigned as Justice minister in the Kibaki administration in 2009 citing frustration, was the first to launch her presidential bid last year. In March, she was voted the most inspiring women leader in Kenya in a poll done by the Infotrak Harris research firm.

Kenneth, the Planning Assistant minister who belongs to the Kenya National Congress Party recently became the first presidential aspirant to release his election manifesto.

Kenneth pitches tent in Rift Valley this weekend to popularise his bid, ahead of the party’s National Delegates Conference later this month. Mutava is expected to contest the presidency on a Democratic Party of Kenya ticket, which does not enjoy much political leverage in Central Kenya.