By Otuma Ongalo
Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi has finally made good his threat to quit the Orange Democratic Movement and join the little known United Democratic Forum (UDF). He did so amid his friends and foes’ chants and cheers. Friends celebrated that the man long considered the coward of Kenya’s big time politics had finally become the bridegroom, rather than the flower girl, in the ever-evolving political marriages of convenience. Foes were elated to witness him commit political suicide, in broad daylight, in his quest to prove that he is his own man.
The story of Mudavadi can be told in the same breath as that of Okonkwo in Chinua Achebe’s Things Fall Apart. Okonkwo lived in perpetual fear of being considered a coward, like his father Unoka. This fear made him commit reckless mistakes in a desperate bid to be viewed as a man of valour. The harder he tried the faster he drifted to self-destruction and this climaxed in his ignominious exit – suicide.
In a twist of fate, Mudavadi the coward had a brighter political future than Mudavadi the man of valour. While he can now walk with his head high among his admirers, this is a walk to oblivion unless a political miracle unfolds soon – such as getting the endorsement of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto should they bow to pressure and quit the presidential race due to their cases at the International Criminal Court. Mudavadi has disregarded the adage that cowards live longer but his move is not in vain.
For Kenya’s politics, the Deputy Prime Minister has run a good race and kept the faith. He has fought the myth that some top positions are the preserve of certain individuals.
He has demonstrated, albeit belatedly, that politicians worth their salt should chart their own destiny instead of relying on other leaders’ benevolence. However, the history Mudavadi’s politics has been more of self-preservation than the quest for national good. His exit from ODM to UDF is to fulfil a confessed burning ambition to appear on the ballot in the presidential race. Politics is a game of gambles, but the risk that the son of Mululu has taken is quite high. And here is why:
In Kenya’s politics, and elsewhere for that matter, the party one chooses plays a big role in determining the aspirants’ fortunes. It is this factor that has made dead men win elections and lacklustre ones make it to Parliament. ODM has repeatedly been polled as the most popular party while, until this week, UDF could not be detected on the political radar. It is highly unlikely that the party will undergo drastic metamorphosis within the few months to the General Election.
Politics is a game of numbers. There is no crowd that Mudavadi is taking to UDF from ODM, except a handful leaders and supporters from his western backyard. He pales in terms of clout compared to fellow aspirants Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto. When it comes to cutting political deals he will play not second fiddle but fifth or so fiddle, this time round.
And quite regrettably, politics is tribal. One cannot successfully mount a serious presidential campaign without solid support from his or her community. Raila, Uhuru, Ruto and Vice- President Kalonzo Musyoka enjoy strong support from the Luo, Kikuyu, Kalenjin and Kamba. Mudavadi’s Luhya community is a divided house. In this community there are Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa and Trade Minister Moses Wetangula also eyeing the big prize. Besides, UDF will be a hard sell in the community where ODM, Ford-Kenya and New Ford-Kenya are deeply entrenched.
If Mudavadi is a serious candidate for the nation’s presidency, he should ask himself why so many individuals from rival political parties kept him company and cheered on as he announced his departure from ODM. They were certainly not wishing him well. They were happy that his move had dealt a blow to their foremost foe, Raila Odinga. They were actually jeering at man who could be utterly excited at the mere ambition of being on the ballot.
