NATO expands in 2023, but timing of Ukraine's membership at issue

2023 saw NATO welcome its 31st member, as Finland joined the alliance in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, Sweden’s application is still being held up by Turkey, whose approval is expected in the coming weeks, while Ukraine’s path to NATO accession remains uncertain.

NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was formed by 12 Western nations in 1949 to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.

Within weeks of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Finland and Sweden - both previously non-aligned countries – applied to join the alliance. Finland officially joined in April, just eleven months after it submitted the application.

“The era of military nonalignment in our history has come to an end. A new era begins,” Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said at the accession ceremony in Brussels on April 4. “Each country maximizes its own security. So does Finland. NATO membership strengthens our international position and room for maneuver,” he said.

Sweden, which submitted its application at the same time as Finland, is still waiting. Turkey, an existing NATO member, has delayed its approval, accusing Sweden of harboring people it considers terrorists, including Kurdish separatists.

In May, Swedish lawmakers passed new anti-terrorism laws which it hoped would allay Turkey’s concerns, prompting protests from some Turkish and Kurdish citizens in Sweden.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally submitted a bill approving Sweden's bid to parliament in October.

Fuat Oktay, the chairman of the Turkish National Assembly Foreign Affairs Commission, said in November that the legislation would be scrutinized carefully. “All of our committee members will have a thorough discussion, evaluate the issue and make our final decision accordingly,” Oktay said November 16.

Speaking to reporters on December 1, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged quick progress. “I hope that the National Assembly can finalize these discussions as soon as possible so we can finalize the ratification of Sweden,” Stoltenberg said.

NATO members voted in July to extend Stoltenberg’s tenure as secretary-general for another year, the second time it has been extended, in order to provide stability for the alliance as it responds to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Under his leadership, NATO has stepped up its support for Ukraine in 2023, coordinating the delivery of member states’ weapons and training. NATO does not have weapons of its own and is reliant on the contributions from its members.

At its July annual summit in Vilnius, the alliance reaffirmed its position that Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Members also voted to simplify its path to accession, removing the requirement for Kyiv to submit a ‘Membership Action Plan’ which is designed to help candidates meet certain political, economic and military criteria.

“By removing that, essentially there is no other lock on Ukraine’s membership to NATO but fundamentally a political decision by NATO leaders,” said Fabrice Pothier, a former NATO head of policy planning and now the CEO of Rasmussen Global, a political consultancy.

NATO has also upgraded its relationship with Kyiv through the formation of the NATO-Ukraine Council. Ukraine says NATO membership is the only way to guarantee its security in the face of Russian aggression.

Speaking before the first meeting of the council on November 29, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said his country was ready to join.

“We are pretty much becoming a de facto NATO army in terms of our technical capacity, management approaches and principles of running an army,” Kuleba told reporters in Brussels.

NATO leaders are torn over when to admit Ukraine into the alliance, according to Pothier. “I think Ukraine is probably one of the most capable, able potential allies you have out there. It’s as good as it gets. But it’s fundamentally a political question about whether there is more risk or benefit to get Ukraine in now than to wait.”

Ukraine is navigating complex accession talks with NATO and the European Union – involving large scale reforms - all while fighting invading Russian forces. Some NATO members argue Ukraine’s accession must wait until the conflict ends to avoid risking a wider war between Russia and NATO. That could prolong the fighting in Ukraine, argues Pothier.

“If you say that, [Russian President] Vladimir Putin will have yet another incentive to keep on going and to keep the level of hostilities sufficiently high so that there won’t be that threshold crossed by Ukraine into NATO,” he told VOA.

“In reality, and strategically, will you ever see the war ending in a way that will be so neat and so clear that then we’ll feel comfortable getting Ukraine in (to NATO)?” Pothier asked.