Key questions to ask about opinion polls

· Ispos survey shows President kenyatta ahead of Raila with a narrowing gap- president Uhuru at 47 per cent and Raila Odinga at 42 per cent.

· Infotrak puts Raila Odinga ahead of President Kenyatta by one per cent with Uhuru at 47 per cent.

· 49 per cent of Kenyans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction and blame Uhuru for the high cost of living, endemic corruption and poor infrastructure.

Two recent opinion polls differed on who, between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga, would be elected if elections were to be held today. While the survey by Ipsos showed Raila Odinga had sharply narrowed the gap between him and the President — Uhuru 47 per cent and Raila 42 per cent — the one by Infotrak showed the Opposition chief is ahead of the President by 1 per cent, at 47 per cent. Some 49 per cent of Kenyans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction and blame Uhuru for the high cost of living, endemic corruption and poor infrastructure. However, there would be a run-off as none would have the requisite 50 plus one per cent votes as required by law. Whatever the case, the findings should never be ignored.

It’s important to note not all opinion polls follow the same methodology so the results are bound to be different. Some polls are scientific while others are not. It is important to know how respondents were selected and who selected them. The results of a well-conducted scientific poll can provide a reliable guide on how people are likely to vote, in this case. When sampling is correctly done, results can easily be extrapolated to the rest of the population thereby presenting a near-picture of what the final outcome would be. But for us to determine if the outcome of a poll is credible, we must ask ourselves several questions; who conducted the poll? Who commissioned the poll and why? How were the survey questions phrased? How were the questions asked? How were respondents chosen? Who was surveyed and how representative was the sample? What was the margin of error? How was the data collected? When was the survey conducted? If an opinion poll was conducted immediately after the recent presidential debate, those who participated are likely to perform better. Sadly, politicians support opinion polls only when the results are in their favour. These polls play a key role in our democracy — they are an important form of public input into political decision making and should never be ignored.