Why referendum is inevitable based on these five happenings in the country

By Rono Kipkemei | Friday, Oct 25th 2019 at 11:36
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I am writing this in regards to the latest development – a lot has happened, as it maybe I will be commenting on what is dominating our political scenes.

Back to election days, and how anxious it stood; citizens affiliated to different parties fought relentlessly to back their parties. During this period, those associated with NASA boycotted election - a certain group had to battle tirelessly to make sure election never occurred in particular areas. Later on, Uhuru was confirmed as the president, whereas opposition leader Raila was sworn-in as people's president, and everything came to a standstill. Typically, we anticipated Raila to be arrested and be judged with high treason, which never occurred. For almost two months - we got exposed to political rhetoric and chest-dumping the country was at the brink of tribal violence that had befallen us a decade ago was nearly repeated. Social media was at war, politicians were fueling emotions, and the country's economy was at its lowest. It might have ended catastrophically if both political splits had taken a stiffer stance – notably if the government had dared arrest opposition leader.

The handshake

It is said; "a day in politics is like a thousand in distinctive life" – many didn't believe up until the absurd grasp thing occurred. I was going through my phone for daily updates; when the news was announced, it was Dumbfounding - how on earth could that have happened? "Politics!" My father once warned me, "never trust a politician; their livelihood depends on deceits." The political dynamic changed drastically. Political experts predicted and alleged that the deputy president was the sole beneficiary of the handshake – others held differing views. He had embarked on tours around the country – based on development and big four agenda. Politicians perceived to be from opposition accompanied him, being the second in command with high chances of succeeding the president - things were going well for him up until when the president mentioned word "tangatanga" referring to DP countrywide tours. The situation took a swipe at him, but DP cleverly turned the negative trait to benefit his desires, which worked to some extent.

Lifestyle audit and corruption fight

I don't believe in the narrative that DP is the most corrupt individual in Kenya, "the dog barks when you touch its owner." The DP indispensable helpers made him the subject – that left others tongue twisting by playing into adversaries' hands. The outbursts on DP in regards to his views with respect to lifestyle audit obliged him to its backing. Most of us consider the DPs acceptance of the audit marked its end – instead, it's those close to him that had brought the aspect that he was the chief target. In politics, "anything that is a plus or detracts something from an opponent, is always welcome." While the DP aides were desperately reproachful, the opposition was captivating it to its advantage. Another detriment was the DP was mostly associated with persons mentioned in graft linked cases - and his unceasing insubordination of the rule of law from taking its course against the purported fraudulent personnel.

The dynasties chronicle

In my opinion, Kenya is a young democracy – we are yet to understand the meaning of dynasty rule. Our voting is aligned to ethnic block – apparently, we can't shy away from "vivaranga za computer" rigging. After Raila had met with Uhuru, he visited former president Moi. On the other hand, the DP visited days later but was denied attention with Mzee due to 'illness.' It conveyed the perception that the dynasties were reorganizing and planning on how to halt DP from soaring to power. It might have been early, but the state of affairs that transpired may have deliberated that something was cooking or it's cooking awaiting the prearranged stage - time will tell. Politically, slightest anticipation always ends up as formidable force – the dynasties have all the revenues to fierce any kind of campaign.

Hustler

The only politician who mastered in Moi School of politics is the self-declared hustler. In the early 90s, he was an unknown CU leader at a local university - 30 years down the line he is one step closer to being the country's CEO. He has faced deterrents along the way - but has always managed to snap the plights at odds with to favor his gambles to ascent higher. Hustler is proficiently charming and charismatic, well known for his generosity – putting him at loggerheads with many of his nemesis. Many have questioned the source of his fortunes, always putting him in trouble and being branded undesirable by his rivals. He needs to be very careful – he might lose it at the edge. It's said, "the pot breaks at the peak of your journeys" or "mbio za sakafuni huishia ukingoni" let him not run as fast as he could or be slow as he couldn't. The last step is the stiffest – most natural if taken self-consciously.

Referendum and BBI

I don't want to bring Baba into 2022 politics, but "when the dog barks and its owner doesn't halt it, the visitor might be on trouble." I support the change of the supreme law – I also support the introduction of PM and its two assistants, whether executive or no executive. If I was the DP and optimistically wish to win in 2022 elections, I could be on the forefront asserting its proposal. Politics is the game of numbers – to have numbers, you need to have a support base. In Kenya, for instance, we vote based on tribe and area block. That can only be realized if an area will have impressions that they will be in an administration. A while ago, Orengo and his cluster slanted at a prospect of Baba running in 2022 – although it's still early to speculate probabilities are high - politics change within a glimpse of an eye based on the situation. For instance, in the run-up to 2007 general election Kalonzo was the front runner to succeed president Kibaki within the ODM-K party. Raila was part of orange in the famous Kilifi draft biding banana versus orange when it carried the day; consequently, ODM-K was born. What happened is in the public domain. If Raila manages to persuade the public as he did way back about constitutional changes, while DP opposes - it will be a tall order for a hustler to succeed Uhuru. As it stands, the president seems to be cleverly allowing the status to unfold inaudibly as long as it doesn't distress his legacy.

The legacy and the silence

"In a war where you have lots of enemies, it is good to bring your enemies closer and keeping your friends at heart – it's much easier to know their tricks closer than far." What president did through handshake was first to bring the enemy close, subsequently keeping his deputy in his heart. Now the country is quiet - We are guesstimating if the two top leaders are still composed or are only bonded by the law. Mr. President now moves freely across the country without much-hyped political rigidity apart from some of his cronies who feel that they have been sidelined. Political temperatures have withered – those who never voted to feel more in the government than those who voted. DP political cliques feel an essence of betrayal, while those close to Baba are buoyant; maybe the last shot was never used. It seems Uhuru killed two birds with one stone.

Kielewke and Tanga tanga politics

In as much as we are guessing who might succeed President Uhuru in 2022, there are chances that we might enter the race with a Ferrari executive (expanded). If those forestalling about law changes succeed - political elites will be back to the drawing board. Lately, the president seems to have changed the tune in respect to referendum prospect – he opts to be done mutely so as not daunt his legacy. Unwillingly, the DP seems to alleviate his stand to its aspect. Mindfully and politically, Kieleweka and Tanga tanga might be a thing of the past based on the situation on the ground. Tactically, between now and the next general election; regrouping will occur, those together might go against each other. Politics is about interest - not policies. Currently, the main interest is how to change the constitution. It is not about blocking Rutos ascent to the presidency.

In conclusion, I am not a political genius, but since the 2002 elections, Kenyans have always voted against someone or something; it only takes a grouping of individuals. Are we going to witness the same come 2022?

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Thanks for reading my article. I am still a student in writing. There might be areas that need working on. And for any comments, email @ kipkemeirono@yahoo.com.

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