2018 World Cup: England look to progress to quarter-finals at the expense of Colombia

The Three Lions take on Jose Pekerman’s side at the Spartak Stadium on 3 July

Having finished second in Group G behind Belgium, the reward for England is a second round tie against Colombia, who topped Group H ahead of Japan. England’s main concern will surely be a loss of momentum following a disappointing and disjointed performance in a 1-0 loss to Belgium, where coach Gareth Southgate made no fewer than eight changes to his starting XI.

Getting the ball rolling

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England can take some heart from past meetings with Colombia, never having lost in five previous meetings. The European side has won three and drawn the other two games against their South American opponents, and are the favourites to make it through to the last eight here, especially given the fact that star man James Rodriguez is likely to miss out through injury for the Colombians.

Looking at the most straightforward kind of bet you can make, on the outcome of a match, England are at just 2.10 to win inside 90 minutes, meaning you would more than double your money should you back this outcome. Colombia, by way of comparison, are at 4.00 to get a positive result by the final whistle.

Alternatively, you can simply bet on who you think will make it through to the quarter-finals, and once again it is England who are at the shorter price. Southgate’s side are at 1.53, with Colombia at the slightly longer price of 2.37, according to Oddsshark.

Yet Colombia have built some valuable momentum ahead of this knock-out tie. They have now won two games in a row, scored four goals and conceded none, and England may well find it trickier than many envisage.

With knock-out ties usually such tight affairs, extra time is a real possibility here. You can back this game going to the extra 30 minute period at the price of 6.50, with the price of it not going to extra time much shorter at 1.11, while a “No” to penalties is also short at 1.15, but if you believe this game will be decided by the lottery of spit kicks then back your intuition at a price of 5.50.

Predicting exact results is never an easy business, but with an England win at 2-1 priced at 11.00, there is the chance for a potentially over ten-fold return on your initial investment. Meanwhile, a 1-0 win for Colombia and Falcao to get the goal is at the much longer price of 23.00.

England of course will welcome back Harry Kane for this tie. Already with five goals to his name at the tournament, the Tottenham striker is at just 2.20 to score any time and at 4.00 to open the scoring, as he did in England’s first group game against Tunisia on 18 June.

Odds (after 90 minutes): Colombia (4.00), England (2.10), draw (3.30)

Meanwhile, on 2 July, World Cup favourites Brazil meet Mexico at the Samara Arena. Tite’s side topped their group with two wins and a draw and, at a price of 4.50, remain the favourites to win the World Cup, ahead of Spain who are at 5.00 – Tite has lost just one game as Brazil manager, a friendly against Argentina 12 months ago.

In addition, Brazil’s record against Mexico in World Cups is a good one. In four previous meetings, the South American giants have never so much as conceded a goal, winning three and drawing one of the games – the most recent, at the 2014 World Cup, ended in a goalless draw.

It will be of little surprise then that it is Brazil who are the overwhelming favourites to progress to the quarter-finals. Tite’s side are priced at just 1.50 to win in 90 minutes, while Mexico are all the way out at 8.00.

The Brazilians will look to impose themselves from the off, while Mexico may well play a more cautious game. You can back Brazil to take an early lead inside the opening 10 minutes at just 7.00.

All in all, while Mexico will likely put up resistance, they don’t look like being a match for Brazil in terms of technical quality. They lost their final group game 3-0 against Sweden which almost cost them qualification from the group, and you can back Brazil to win by the exact same score line at a price of 11.00.

Odds (after 90 minutes): Brazil (1.50), Mexico (8.00), draw (4.20)

2018 FIFA WORLD CUP ROUND OF 16 TIES

Saturday, 30 June

3.00pm – (2.45) France x Argentina (3.50)
                 Draw (3.30)

7.00pm – (2.80) Uruguay x Portugal (3.00)
                 Draw (3.00)

Sunday, 1 July

3.00pm – (1.57) Spain x Russia (7.00)
                  Draw (4.00)

7.00pm – (1.90) Croatia x Denmark (5.20)
                  Draw (3.30)

Monday, 2 July

3.00pm – (1.53) Brazil x Mexico (7.00)
                 Draw (4.33)

7.00pm – (1.40) Belgium x Japan (9.00)
                  Draw (5.00)

Tuesday, 3 July

3.00pm – (3.10) Sweden x Switzerland (2.70)
                  Draw (3.00)

7.00pm – (4.00) Colombia x England (2.10)
                 Draw (3.30)