Opposition's push to oust IEBC unlikely to succeed

I have followed with keen interest remarks and the body language of Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) leaders ever since they triggered the anti-IEBC protests.

The campaign, which went a notch higher weeks ago when they launched the weekly Monday demonstrations, has been hinged on several allegations against IEBC commissioners.

It is, however, worth noting that none of these allegations have been convincingly substantiated or proven beyond reasonable doubt. Instead, CORD has always resorted to politicising these matters whenever it is challenged by IEBC and its allies to do so. It should be noted that one of the allegations that forms the basis of their agitation is that the commission bungled the 2013 General Election.

So far, the commissioners are yet to explain the circumstance that led to breakdown of Electronic Voter Identification Devices (EVID) on the polling day.

It should be recalled when the systems failed, the IEBC officials came out immediately to inform Kenyans about it, and moved to explain they were not responsible for their failure. While allaying fears that the breakdown would compromise the credibility of the elections, the commission resorted to conducting the polls manually. It should be noted that manual voting is allowed by the Constitution and other related laws.

It is now clear that Raila neither believes in IEBC nor the Supreme Court, and this is despite the fact that he played an instrumental role in establishing the two institutions. Besides, he played a key role in the enactment of the new Constitution when he served as Prime Minister and co-principal.

For now, he wants Kenyans to ignore and overlook the same Constitution and support him in using unconstitutional means to send the IEBC commissioners home. Can Raila show where it is written in the Constitution that you can storm an office and evict a constitutional office holder by force? If this is allowed, it will amount to a constitutional coup, period.

The Constitution provides two ways of disbanding constitutional commissions such as IEBC. You can either use the parliamentary route or a judicial process. Having taken the oath to uphold, defend and protect the Constitution, President Uhuru has repeatedly stated that he will not give in to CORD machinations.

CORD wants him to convene unstructured and amorphous national dialogue conference to discuss the modalities of ejecting the IEBC commissioners and reconstituting a new electoral team. These modalities are laid out in the Constitution and one would expect the coalition to follow the law to the letter and spirit.

Allow me to make one thing very clear. If CORD succeeds in using the outcome of 2013 presidential elections as a yardstick for kicking out IEBC commissioners, then this will give President Kenyatta and his deputy a hard time seeking re-election in 2017.

Why do I say so? CORD will use this as a campaign platform to demonise the Jubilee duo by alleging that they did not win that election. The coalition would further move to incite their supporters that the two do not stand a chance of winning the next General Election. If Raila is not declared the winner, it means these elections are 'not free and fair'.

Notably, opinion polls conducted in the recent past show President Kenyatta remains the most favoured presidential candidate. The respondents mainly cite his development record and his success in tackling insecurity challenges.

For this reason, there is no doubt the President is poised to bounce back to power in 2017.

So, if Raila loses this election, I have no doubt the Government will move with speed to calm and mollify the tempers of his supporters.