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FIFA mathematical formula determines how Premier League season will end

PREMIER LEAGUE By Mirror | March 19th 2020
Liverpool are predicted to break the Premier League points record.[Courtesy]

Right now we're not sure when the Premier League season will end, let alone how.

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All top flight clubs have been left in limbo by the coronavirus-enforced break on the campaign.

League leaders Liverpool are just two wins from their first title in 30 years; the top four race is still wide open; and a number of clubs are battling hard against relegation.

But in these uncertain times, what if we could take a glimpse into the future and work out how things will pan out.

Well, according to the professor of mathematics at Columbia University, we can do just that with his advanced statistical model.

FIFA have used the model created by Professor Julien Guyon, whose report in the Times predicted how the Premier League season would conclude.

The model analyses factors such as the strength of opponent, and home and away form - which FIFA use to compile their men's and women's international rankings.

Based on the data, Liverpool are unsurprisingly set to be finally crowned champions, and will smash the current points record.

They are expected to amass a whopping 106 points, trumping Man City's 2018 effort of 100.

With 10 games left to play, the race for the top four is arguably the tightest its been in recent memory.

Chelsea are expected to secure their top-four spot. [Courtesy]

Chelsea are in pole position, and Professor Guyon's programme doesn't see that changing.

The Blues are predicted to edge out nearest rivals Man Utd by three points.

Of course that could be enough to secure Champions League football for United next season, with City still awaiting a result on their appeal against their UEFA ban.

Should City's ban not be overturned, that would see Wolves and Sheffield Utd rewarded for their fine seasons with places in the Europa League.

Aston Villa look destined for the drop. [Courtesy]

That means disappointment for both Tottenham and Arsenal, who the model forecast to finish in eighth and ninth in the table respectively.

Down at the foot of the table it's further bad news for the sides currently sat in the drop zone.

Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth have all been tipped to go down, as Watford, West Ham and Brighton survive on the last day.

As Premier League chiefs meet to discuss a potential return date for league fixtures, clubs will of course be keen to prove the stats wrong.

And as we all know, the game isn't played on paper.


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