Unravelling the riddle of Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto’s new party JAP

NAIROBI: The riddle of whether or not a candidate of the newly-unveiled Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP) is eligible to contest in the upcoming Kajiado Central Constituency by-election is as puzzling as the issues that surround President Uhuru Kenyatta’s latest political vehicle.

Even if the architects of JAP eventually succeed to overcome this particular legal hurdle, the very fact that it popped up at the eleventh hour and probably as an oversight on the part of JAP strategists speaks volumes about the hurried nature of operations at Jubilee and the impediments ahead.

And there are many more riddles about the new outfit. Why, for instance, do both sets of politicians allied to Uhuru and Deputy President William Ruto appear apprehensive about the latest deal? And, whose political interests does the new arrangement serve best — the Jubilee principal currently at the helm or the one destined to take over?

Ideally, the bigger riddle has got to do with who between the President and his deputy is actually championing the JAP idea. Although supporters of Ruto view the latest move as a scheme to swallow the DP’s United Republican Party (URP), some sources have intimated to The Standard on Sunday that Ruto is actually the brains behind JAP.

One political house

Those behind this thinking argue that Ruto is seeking to lock in his supporters and those of Uhuru in one political house as a guarantee of inheriting the wider Jubilee vote-base when and if the President exits the political scene.

The Vice Chairman of JAP, Mr David Murathe, gives a most potent hint towards this argument: “The notion of JAP is a brilliant idea that needs to be supported fully as it reassures TNA (The National Alliance) and URP supporters of a post-Uhuru era.”

The former Gatanga MP, who is a close ally of the President, however maintains that the formation of JAP has always been the joint idea of Uhuru and Ruto.

“It has been their dream all along that we must go into the next elections in one vehicle. Of course in 2013, the stakes were high and Jubilee was doubtlessly a marriage of convenience, as the two leaders were pushed together by similar circumstances,” Murathe told The Standard on Sunday in an apparent reference to the cases against the duo at The Hague.

National Assembly Leader of Majority Aden Duale shares this view. Duale says  the formation of JAP will not only place TNA and URP supporters under one roof, but will also “de-tribalise” political parties and help unite the country.

“We have laid out our political strategy for the next 15 years which will help us execute a smooth political transition. We know who will be our political leader, including presidential candidate over this period and our roadmap is therefore clearer than that of any party,” says Duale.

Apparently, it is for this very reason that some politicians from the President’s Central Kenya region feel caged in. They are boxed in politically in order that they do not exit to another political outfit after Uhuru’s term.

Walking into a trap

Their Rift Valley counterparts, are equally suspicious. Claiming that this is a ploy of the President’s allies, the Chairman of the Council of Governors, Isaac Ruto, warns that the Deputy President could be walking into a trap. The Bomet Governor says URP will be swallowed up under the new arrangement and the Deputy President will have no clout to make demands.

However, Duale allays such fears. Consultations, says the Garissa Town MP, are ongoing and all original member parties, including New Ford-Kenya, Kanu and Narc, will eventually come on board.

“We do not believe in a nusu-mkate arrangement. We are one coalition, with one President and one deputy, so the power bargains and demands do not arise,” says Duale.

According to political scientist Adams Oloo, there are two political realities in the JAP story. One is that URP is going to immediately lose its bargaining power once its backers enter into a new union with new rules, where Uhuru is the President, Head of State and Government and party leader. Unlike under the old arrangement, Oloo says nobody will care to find out what share or demand the other side (URP) will be making because “we are now one”.

“The second scenario is that Uhuru’s side will give in to all demands, if any, by Ruto, including probably the formation of this very entity (JAP). But this is only a short term arrangement. And Uhuru’s people will of course not rock the boat at this moment because they need URP. But once they cross over (after a possible Uhuru re-election in2017), they will not care what happens next,” says Oloo, who is head of Political Science and Public Administration Department at the University of Nairobi.

Meanwhile, members of the rival Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) have maintained a loud silence on the latest JAP development. Contacted for comment, most of them declined comment, dismissing it as “a Jubilee affair”.

But Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) Director of Elections Junnet Muhammed dismissed JAP as not a challenger: “It is a party for 2022 but our focus at the moment is on Uhuru and Ruto’s Jubilee. I mean, we are tired of this trend where parties are manufactured purely for purposes of elections.”

JAP is not the first party to try this experiment. In 2006, forces allied to Raila and Kalonzo, then warming up towards each other, presented a parliamentary candidate on a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

LDP was billed as the political vehicle of the Raila-Kalonzo allies in the following year’s general elections and an opportunity presented itself for a test drive ahead of 2007. During the by-elections in March, following the death of Kasipul-Kabondo MP Peter Owidi, LDP’s candidate Paddy Ahenda emerged victorious.

Row over flag bearer

But Ahenda would become the one and only LDP MP in the ninth Parliament and beyond as the political landscape changed thereafter. LDP metamorphosed into ODM but Raila and Kalonzo differed on who should be its flag bearer, leading to a split.

JAP is following the same script and should its candidate Patrick Tutui win the Kajiado Central seat, he will be the sole JAP soul in the eleventh Parliament just like Ahenda. The only difference is that JAP leaders are already in power. That makes for a relatively higher chance of success.