President Uhuru Kenyatta must ‘fuata nyayo,’ then do more

By XN Iraki

Let us be sincere, we love not being original. We refuse to set our own standards and prefer to use other people’s or country’s ideas. The concept of 100 days in office is very American and so is governorship. We could not even get a local name for Cabinet Secretary. Americanisation has been ongoing since American movies and advent of 24-hour cable TV like CNN.

Some could boldly argue Americanisation got a big boost when we got an American educated President. All the others were either locally educated or British educated. The younger generation now prefers to go to Harvard instead of LSE where Kenyatta Senior and Mwai Kibaki schooled.

Renewed economic activity

So what about the 100 days of Uhurunomics? Let us be sincere again. 100 days is too short a period to make inference about Uhurunomics which had been interrupted after he left the Ministry of Finance. Assuming Uhuru will be the President for 5 years, which will translate to 1,825 days. 100 days is only 5.5 per cent of his presidency. Can we make predictions of a baby’s future in the first 100 days? Some will argue even younger using genetic analysis. Let us try for Uhurunomics by looking at the vital statistics. The GDP growth which is a measure of the nation’s economic health is expected to go up reaching about 6 per cent in 2014. That is good news for Uhurunomics. There is evidence of renewed economic activity with number of construction cranes dotting our skylines on the rise.

The weather has been good ensuring inflation is under check. Couple this with steady price of oil and economic stability looks good. The only concern is the lowered economic activity reported in China which might have some adverse effects on the World Economy and Kenya, by extension.

The Shilling has also steadily held against major currencies. We can interpret this as a sign of economic resiliency. Some feared that one of the “consequences” would be a battered shilling.

Another source of good economic news is the falling interest rates which are likely to stimulate economic growth. The Monetary Policy Committee of Central Bank left CBK rate unchanged. This is an indicator that the economy is healthy.

The discovery of more oil is good news for the Kenyan economy. Though we may not export the product for another few years, the feel good effect can be a great economic stimulus. The specter of one day being energy sufficient should excite every Kenyan. Remittances from Kenyans abroad are on upward trend. The money sent by these hard working Kenyans stimulate our economy farther through consumption and investment.  Our trade statistics indicate we are still importing more than exporting and that has not significantly changed in the 100 days of Uhurunomics.

The NSE stock index is on an upward trend and so is our foreign exchange reserves- good news.

The only concern is whether this economic growth is trickling to the rural areas where majority of Kenyans live.

What of the economy in the next 1,725 days of Uhuru presidency?

Uhuru inherited an economy whose foundation had been laid by Kibaki. He just needs to “fuata nyayo”.  He however must go beyond where Kibaki stopped. While Kibakinomics was about the infrastructure, we are yet to define the core of Uhurunomics. For now it seems to be job creation.

He has to implement Vision 2030 and deal with a new political dispensation that has lots of competing powers and egos. He must ensure that politics will not slow down the economy.

His presidency must improve the national image. It is amazing that the Government is so silent on allegations that our ranking on corruption has improved, for the worse. Image is everything; that is why we buy Italian shoes and watch American movies. The only reason Rwandese bond was oversubscribed in the international market is because of the image.

Uhurunomics will have to confront our great expectations. Most voters expected their lives transformed overnight. That will take time.

Uhuru is yet to get us a grand project either physical or otherwise to capture the national psyche. If he does not fill that vacuum, pessimists will fill that space very quickly.

He must confront the world changing economic order that is shifting to the East and later to Africa. What is in no doubt is that Uhuru has political capital, from numbers in both Houses. He needs to spend it on the economic front. He has 1,725 days to go and if he puts the economy right he could even get another 1,825 days in office. UhuRuto got the golden chance of turning Kenya into the Swahili Tiger in our lifetime.