UK’s unexpected election results put majoritarian democracy to the test

By Atieno Ndomo

Unlike their counterparts in most of continental Europe who are used to coalition governments, Britain is more accustomed to conclusive electoral outcomes. That is to say, having a clear party majority win with an indisputable mandate to govern.

Which is why the indeterminate outcome of the just concluded elections, where none of the three major parties — the Labour Party, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democratic Party — has managed to garner an outright majority and this has occasioned a sort of inconvenient political crisis for that country.

The last time Britain was presented with a similar scenario of a "hung parliament" as they call it, was back in 1974. At that time, after a few months of an attempt at a minority government by the incumbent Conservative Party government, the country was back at the polls.

Forty-five million voters were eligible to vote in the May 6 elections. One of the key high points of the process was of course the predictability on the timeline for relay of results. In fact, the first results were in within the hour of the polls closing. And most results were declared within 24 hours of the end of polling. On the downside, there were reports of hitches with ballot papers and the barring of voters who were already on queue when polling closed from casting their ballots. A relative low voter turnout especially among the youth was also observed.

After 13 years of Labour Party rule, although deemed a historic result, the outcome has been disappointing for the conservatives who aimed for a clear win. On their part, and after a promising campaign show, the Liberal Democrats have achieved a much less impressive outcome. In terms of popular vote share: 36 per cent, 29 per cent and 23 per cent has gone to the Conservative Party, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democratic Party respectively.

With the main contenders having failed to individually attain the minimum 326 parliamentary seats, the stage is thus set for attempts at coalition building through deal making and horse trading. A step somewhat limited by dire financial straits and impending austerity measures in Britain. Gordon Brown’s Labour Party is expected to bargain for the support of the Liberal Democrats using electoral system reform to abolish the "first past the post system", in favour of the "proportionate representation system" long championed by the Liberal Democrats. This stalemate spotlights Britain’s majoritarian electoral model with its "winner-takes-all" ethos.

The Conservative Party is deemed an unlikely ally on the electoral reform agenda. More over, generally speaking, a coalition arrangement pitting the Conservative Party with the Liberal Democrats would be seen as a union of strange bed fellows. It is this fact as well as the Labour Party’s incumbency advantage, which represents a sort of lifeline to Brown to continue as Prime Minister.

Of course, the Conservative Party also has the option of gunning for a minority government scenario, invoking their share of the popular vote as well as parliamentary seats.

It will be interesting to watch how this situation is resolved. The nature of the coalition (if any) or governing framework that will rule Britain will be audited on account of whether it will be a partnership of ideas or one simply about numbers. For the Liberal Democrats it may amount to a choice between opportunism or principle; joining in a progressive alliance or not.

Crafting coalitions can be a tricky affair. Two months since their electoral contest, parties in Iraq have not yet managed to firm up a deal on how to govern in the absence of an outright majority winner. In Belgium, they are set to return to the polls in June after a long drawn yet unsuccessful coalition building process.

Notwithstanding differing contexts and dynamics, Britain can draw inspiration from seasoned EU colleagues like Germany. The latter’s ruling grand coalition government is the result of a month-long negotiation sealed with a detailed contract. Nevertheless, Germany enjoys relative economic prosperity. Ultimately, coalitions are workable if they manage to attain consensus, short of which a fresh electoral contest is inevitable.

—The writer is a social and economic policy analyst

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