By Standard on sunday reporter

During his recent visit to Kenya, former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan asked voters to seriously ponder upon consequences of electing president, persons who have cases at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

Undoubtedly, there is huge interest from all and sundry including the international community, on the March 2013 polls.

This is especially so after the disputed 2007 polls that led to post-election violence that pushed Kenya’s economy into the ditch.

In the next General Election, two senior politicians with considerable influence and clout but with cases before the ICC for their alleged role in the 2007 chaos could win the presidency.

“If by March or April 2013, Kenyans wake up under the presidency of a person who is a suspect at the ICC, there is a likelihood of tough times ahead,” said Macharia Kihuro, a risk manager at Shelter Afrique.

In the event that an Uhuru or Ruto presidency fails to get support from the West, Kenya stands to lose a huge chunk of the US$529.6 million that is to be disbursed to the country over the next three years under the fund’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

Also in doubt will be execution of an on going deal between the European Union and the Government that will see Kenya benefit from some 383 million Euros between 2008 - 2013.

Economic sanctions by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could elicit similar responses from European countries and other bilateral trading partners, causing untold damage to Kenya’s flower and horticulture industry as well as tourism.

There are also fears that Kenya could face crippling economic sanctions in the event that the person elected in 2013 happens to be an ICC suspect and decides to ignore court summons. Kenya could also lose its credit ratings as foreign investors may flee.

Currently, Kenya needs to raise cash from the international market through sovereign bonds. “With poor country risk ratings, it will be very difficult for it to raise funds,” said Kihuro.

There are concerns that impunity will thrive if those who have been accused of bearing the greatest responsibility in the 2007 polls are not barred from the presidential race.

Further, victims of post-election violence might never get justice if any of the ICC suspects was to win the presidential polls.

“It must be realised that Uhuru and Ruto are desperate to have one of them elected president so that they can sabotage The Hague process. In a way, this is ironical as they want the people to vote for them, whereas they do not want justice for the victims of post-election violence, those currently in the camps for displaced persons,” said Awuor Ponge, Associate Research Fellow and Monitoring & Evaluation Specialist; Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR) – Kenya.

Power vacuum

While Uhuru and Ruto have the option of going it jointly and winning the elections in the first round, they face the hurdle of reconciling their two communities still residing in the camps set up in Rift Valley.

“In the event that the President and his Deputy are both Hague material, this will plunge the country in a Constitutional crisis of un-imagined magnitude. It is likely that they will have a majority of MPs in the lower House and probably the Upper House, but there is still bound to be a power vacuum unless this is handled now and constitutional provisions made to accommodate such eventualities,” said Ponge.

But again, the Constitution is such a noble document that cannot be amended at will simply because of two individuals.

While it is assumed that Uhuru and Ruto will cooperate with the ICC even when they are elected to State House, there are fears that the driving force behind their ongoing campaigns is to subvert justice.

“There is a likelihood that once elected, they will invoke immunity enjoyed by a sitting president and coupled with shuttle diplomacy that is already underway, the African heads will give them conducive atmosphere to dismiss the ICC process just like they are doing to El-Bashir,” said Ponge.

Kenya is not an Island. Thus, working under sanctions may not be in the best of interest for a majority of people. The two could be praying that they can survive with the financial backing of the Oriental Big Brother, but that cannot be guaranteed. What are the economic implications of an Uhuru or Ruto presidency?

“This is a subject that has become entirely knee jerk and reflexive with very little empirical discussion. The first point to note is that both individuals have a case to answer at the ICC and whilst the communications century is upon us. I know of no country that would consider having a President remote controlling from The Hague as optimal,” said Aly Khan Satchu, an independent analyst.

He added that Kenya is more interconnected with the world than most of the states in Africa and therefore any consequences would be amplified.

“The most serious consequences would of course be if the President refused to avail himself at the ICC. This would surely automatically trigger sanctions and Khartoum is the obvious comparison,” said Satchu.

He added that the ICC process has allowed those who have been caught in its crosshairs to consolidate their base.

Complicate relations

If we elect a Head of State who is also a war criminal suspect before the ICC, what signal will this send to the international community?

“The signal is entirely the wrong one, I am afraid. We have China who can step into the breach to some extent but betting the Bank on China looks to me a poor trade,” said Satchu.

As matters stand, Kenya is at a tipping point and could tip either way. It either tips into faster growth or we start to live on our own devices.

“I think the folks headed to the ICC need to take the fable of gepetto and pinochio on board. Be the puppet masters because the economy could simply crater,” said Satchu.

There has been a lot of talk in the political space that if either Uhuru or Ruto were to win the presidency, this would complicate issues for Kenya’s relations with the rest of the world. But this view is not shared by all.

“There is so much attention from the East towards Africa. You can recall that Northern Sudan is still being funded and that the West has a financial crisis and needs Kenya for markets,” said Kariithi Murimi, a risk analyst in Nairobi. Then there are friends of Kenya such as China who may not change their dealings because of the ICC.

 


 

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