Economics of fear: From the grip of Covid to polls and terrorism

The fears go beyond ideologies to how the winner will manage the economy, as well as the losers and their expectations. [Courtesy]

When the history of the Covid-9 pandemic is written, one chapter is likely to attract a lot of interest: “What really happened in Africa?"

It had been feared that once Covid-19 got into Africa’s overcrowded informal settlements, a disaster of apocalyptic proportions would unfold. It did not.

In a continent devoid of advanced medical services even under the best of circumstances, the mortality rate from Covid-19 has left scientists and health professionals with many unanswered questions.

No one has given a concrete explanation as to why the predicted disaster did not happen. Was the virus selective? My hunch is that it has to do more with demographics.

For starters, very few elderly people live in such settlements. Remember Kenya and Africa, in general, has a youthful population, with about 40 per cent of Kenyans being 14 years or younger. That explains why Covid-19 has not been a problem in schools.  

And credit to many African governments, Kenya included, they took drastic measures to safeguard their populations when the virus landed on our shores.

We shall never know if some of these measures were rational, but time has taught us that governments may have overreacted, leading to a global economic meltdown. Was there a better alternative? 

After two years, it now seems the virus will “leave with a whimper” to quote poet TS Elliot. After the delta variant, subsequent variants have become weaker, according to scientists. Even the fear over the Omicron variant seems to have slowly faded. Maybe mass vaccination worked. 

Some countries are lifting the restrictions on travel and social gatherings. Kenya did that last October, sparking nationwide celebrations.  

Locally, the fear of Covid-19 never really overwhelmed us. I am surprised no one is praising Kenyans for their boldness and resilience at the peak of infections last year.

It could be called recklessness, but many people did not have a choice; they needed to earn a living, and staying indoors was not an option.

We are used to many other medical crises. Some say in whispers that our underdevelopment was an asset in confronting Covid-19. Maybe our bodies have met so many pathogens that we have developed a formidable immunity.  

Even our economy was resilient. Its informal nature insulated us from economic cycles. While the government provided some stimulus packages, it’s still unclear how it cushioned the “hustlers” and “sufferers”. 

That informality gave economic players the flexibility to confront Covid-19. Operators of roadside kiosks and wheelbarrow sellers in Kawangware did not suffer as much as those who occupy fancy office blocks in Upper Hill after being forced to work from home. 

With no alternative, we had to stand up to Covid-19. Some affluent people had to change residences when their fortunes dwindled, with others having nowhere to go. We just waited for the pandemic to run its course. We even resisted vaccination despite the fact that we were vaccinated as babies with no clue what it was all about. 

We can now confidently say that unless another variant emerges (God forbid), the end of Covid-19 appears nigh. The fear has subsided. Masks are being ignored and even travelling by air is more relaxed. I experienced this firsthand on a recent domestic flight. The Health Ministry’s statistics suggest falling infection rates.  

But another fear is taking over from Covid-19 - the fear of the looming general election in August and possible economic disruption. This was well managed in 2013 and 2017, and GDP growth rate figures attest to that.  

This time, leading presidential contenders need to be moderated. Their lieutenants have rattled the political boat with statements that evoke the ghosts of 2007/2008 post-election violence. 

Add the fact that the economic and political ideologies of the leading contenders are not clearly articulated.

The fears go beyond ideologies to how the winner will manage the economy, as well as the losers and their expectations.

Some observers, I included, believe the chances of violence are low. The problem is the “emotional violence”  that is likely to be meted against losers, their supporters and sympathisers. 

The coalescing of different interest groups around leading contenders raises the stakes even higher. Remember the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) never dispersed power at the top.  

One simple approach to ensuring peaceful polls is for the incumbent to remain neutral and let the contenders fend for themselves.

He should spend more time ensuring that the elections will be free and fair and Kenyans get the leader they deserve - one who will ensure a quick recovery from the Covid-19 economic slump, transform this country into a developed country in the shortest time possible, create opportunities for all, reward hard workers and crystallise the Kenyan dream.

Fear is the last thing we need ahead of the polls. But just when the fear of Covid-19 had started to subside, the fear of terrorism is back with warnings from Western embassies. It seems we have to permanently live under the long shadow of fear. Why?