Raila’s tough options ahead

Business

By Kipchumba Some

The Grand Coalition Government was supposed to be a holding groundbefore rising to the presidency in 2012.

But analysts now argue Prime Minister Raila Odinga could be done in by the very Government he is shepherding with President Kibaki.

Raila is walking a tightrope trying to show that a coalition that is fast losing public confidence is actually working while reconciling with the fact that the reforms have almost stalled, to the detriment of his career.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga

Worse still, the options on how he can reinvent himself are limited and might end up isolating him further from the political summit.

Prof Kenneth Simala of Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology says Raila has cast himself on a cliff. He has to defend an unpopular government, while trying to maintain his national popularity as the clock ticks towards 2012.

"I don’t think he can have them both. He will have to sacrifice one for the other. But as it is, he is losing on both ends. He is losing popularity and the reforms are not coming," he said.

Dr Godwin Siundu, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi, says Raila cannot afford to bolt out of the coalition.

"He has already given his adversaries enough mud to throw at him through some political miscalculations. The final nail on his career will be to confirm to people that he is a perpetual turncoat," said Siundu.Power sharing deal

Former UN Secretary -General Kofi Annan, who brokered the power sharing deal, in his latest assessment of the coalition’s performance decried the slow pace of reforms in his latest assessment of the coalition’s performance. Surprisingly, the two principals gave themselves an impressive score of 90 per cent on reform agenda. While this was roundly criticised by the civil society, it was not lost on observers the spirited fight Raila put up for the coalition.

"He has either realised that he cannot fight and win over Kibaki and his lieutenants or it was just strategic," said Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University.

He continued: "Whatever the reason for that, it portrayed a picture of a man who is now content with the establishment, who and cares little about changing the status quo." However, an aide of Raila who did not want to be named discussing his superiors said the PM’s dilemma lies in the fact that the institutions he wants to be reformed are serving Kibaki and his party, PNU, very well.

"Evan Gicheru (Chief Justice) swore in Kibaki despite protests and Aaron Ringera (former Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission director) did not bust Anglo-Leasing cheats. Raila will have a difficult time, but I doubt he will ever be comfortable without reforms in those institutions," he said.

Public opinion is that the two principals have not demonstrated adequate good will to undertake comprehensive reforms, making this Government no different from the others. Coalition failures

But since the President is retiring in 2012, Raila, who has already declared interest in the presidency, will take the flak for the coalition’s failures. And this is the baggage that may prove too heavy for his presidential dreams.

Munene, who teaches political science, contends it was a political blunder for Raila to have agreed to a coalition government in the first place.

"The coalition was a stop-gap measure to end the violence. It had no firm ideology to take this country forward reform wise. Unfortunately Raila jumped onto it without considering the long-term consequences to his ambitions," he said. But things have not always been rosy between the principals.

For example, earlier in the year, the PM criticised the President for unilaterally making State appointments.

So bad was the falling out that many thought the PM and his party ODM, would bolt from the coalition and agitate call for fresh elections. But things have changed of late.

It is instructive to note that while Parliament and the civil society erupted in protest over Kibaki’s reappointment of Justice Aaron Ringera to head the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission, Raila uncharacteristically kept off the matter.

Raila has moulded his political career as a revolutionary and firebrand. Some argue that he works best when he is out of government bashing it and not when he is part of it. These critics say the coalition has taken the fire out of him.

Simala reckons that Raila has limited options, but says it would be unwise to jump ship. He says this would be suicidal for the country and for Raila’s political career as well. Fragile state

"The country is still in a fragile state following the post-election violence. If he bolts out, chances are high that fresh violence might break out. If that happens blood will be on him and no one will forgive him." Nominated MP Musa Sirma, an ally of Raila, says by bolting out of the coalition, the PM would have played into the hands of his detractors.

"Many of his opponents in 2012 would love to see him fail, and this is one of the reasons for the in-fighting within ODM. If he makes the mistake of abandoning the coalition, he might never recover," he said.

Another issue that works against Raila is that ODM is no longer the solid, united party it was in the run-up to the 2007 polls.

"If Raila decides to jump from the coalition ship, he is not sure whether other regional blocs in ODM, which have been critical of his leadership, will follow him. Some in the party would be too willing to replace him," said Munene.

Dr Charles Otieno, of the Institute for Policy and Polity, says Raila should capitalise on the situation in the coalition instead of abandoning it.

Raila has been trying to make overtures to the Central Province in the hope that the region will shore up his candidacy in 2012. But his efforts these have not amounted to much.

"The game is not yet lost for Raila altogether. He must realise that the coalition is a treacherous field in which he has to play his cards close to his chest," he said.

Otieno says it is highly unlikely Raila will abandon the coalition to remain relevant in 2012.

"Look at what has happened to those who have left Government ostensibly to gain public support, haven’t they disappeared in to oblivion? I think Raila is too smart not to go that route."

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