The time bomb that is millions of Kenya jobless youths

By MOSES MICHIRA

NAIROBI, KENYA: Kenyan youths are now facing serious unemployment time bomb. The country’s number of jobless youths stands at 2.3 million.

This frustrated social group is partly responsible for more than half of the crimes reported nationally, researchers now say. It is expected to keep growing and reach a peak nationally in about ten years’ time. Church leaders have warned this “demographic trap” could see “more crime, militant gangs, terrorism, labour unrest and political violence” among other social ills.

Statistics gathered by Government, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) shows that young people between the ages of 18 and 34 form over 70 per cent of the working age population of 19.8 million people. More than half of them are unemployed. UNDP sums up unemployment in Kenya as ”a youth problem.” Every year, another 500,000 young Kenyans enter the job market from schools, colleges and universities. Many of them have no usable qualifications or skills, having dropped out of various institutions before completing their studies.

Millions of people born in the 1980s and 1990s, collectively called ‘Generation Next’, are either actively hunting for jobs or frustrated at homes. You will find many of these “unemployable or underemployed” youth on street corners, at shopping centres, at matatu termini and outside market places around the country. Often they while away the time-discussing politics or drinking plans. Some choose a life of petty crime to make ends meet.

According to IEA’s Youth Research Compendium, a person aged between 16 and 25 years commits one crime in every two crimes reported to police. In  2007/2008 Fiscal Year, some 89,770 crimes were reported. Out of these, 48,710 (54 per cent) were committed by youth in that age bracket. Police reports also show involvement in violent crime by youth just entering their teens. Earlier this year, a boy of 14 was shot dead over a violent mugging in Nairobi.

Social scientists warn that the “youth bulge”, the huge number of people nearing adulthood notable in demographic charts, presents the biggest hurdle in tackling violent crime. They note that many of these youth are unemployed or underemployed at a time when sections of Kenyan society are enjoying a significant improvement in incomes and living standards.

Problem in Central Kenya

Currently, the problem is most notable in Central Kenya, where there is a relatively larger number of youth aged between 19 and 29 than in other regions.

“Since they have no jobs, they remain idle and can only engage in alcohol production and drinking due to high stress levels,” the National Council of Churches of Kenya noted in a 2012 research paper on the problem.

The paper found the growth of criminal gangs like Mungiki to be linked to this problem. Police records show that youth aged from 16 to 25 are the most dangerous, with males responsible for nine out of 10 criminal cases in their age bracket. They also account for a disproportionate fraction of all property and violent crimes.  Different economists describe the situation as worrying for a country with such a youthful population and a birth rate of close to three per cent, against an economic expansion that is not creating as many jobs as needed.

“It takes the average college graduate five years to secure job,” says Dr Jacob Omolo, an economics professor at Kenyatta University. He says that unemployment statistics grossly understates the crisis because they only capture people actively seeking jobs while leaving out the disillusioned masses that may have given up. The economist says, degree certificates and diplomas are just pieces of paper for these disillusioned youth who outnumber those classified as unemployed.

In a report titled ‘Youth Employment in Kenya: Analysis of Labour Market and Policy Interventions’ published in October last year, Dr Omolo found that a population boom in the 1990s could be the country’s biggest headache on unemployment. A large proportion of young adults and a rapid rate of growth in the working-age population makes the unemployment problem worse, prolongs dependency on parents, diminishes self-esteem and fuels frustrations, he wrote. He warned that such jobless youth might develop a generational consciousness of belonging to a group with extraordinary size and strength, enabling them to act collectively and, perhaps, destructively. This may explain the formation of youth vigilante groups that make it easy for violent actions to take place. He concludes that high unemployment rates increase the likelihood of violence and conflict.

Informal sector

In another report on the youth situation in Kenya, researcher Katindi Njonjo argued that the informal sector, which has been responsible for four out of every five new jobs, cannot be relied upon to end unemployment. Informal sector jobs are precarious in nature and characterised by job insecurity, poor wages and working conditions, lack of social protection, and weak safety and health standards.

“Informality remains a major productivity trap,” Ms Njonjo says, comparing how fast the formal and informal sectors were creating new positions.

 


 

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