Kalonzo seizes opportunity to ride rising tide opposing Ruto and Raila

Wiper Democratic Movement Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Eugene Wamalwa and other leaders address a roadside gathering during meet the people tour at Mlolongo in Machakos County on April 15,2025 wherever they promised to send Kenya Kwanza regime home because of incompetence. [Courtesy, Standard]

Post-colonial Kenya has had dominant personalities, every decade. The 1960s was the transition period with Jomo Kenyatta, Oginga Odinga, Tom Mboya, Joseph Murumbi, Ronald Ngala, Paul Ngei, Daniel arap Moi, and Masinde Muliro.

The 1970s featured JM Kariuki complaining about ten millionaires amidst ten million beggars. Charles Njonjo silencing politicians by decreeing it treason to imagine a president can die, and the ascension of Daniel arap Moi to the presidency.

The 1980s witnessed the rise of Nicholas Biwott, Mulu Mutisya, Shariff Nassir, Moses Mudavadi, Wangari Maathai, Raila Odinga, Kariuki Chotara, Alexander Muge, Timothy Njoya, ‘Bwana Dawa’ Mark Too, and George Saitoti.

The 1990s produced Kenneth Matiba, Martha Wangari Karua, Charles Rubia, Simeon Nyachae, Kivutha Kibwana, Uhuru Kenyatta, Cyrus Njirongo, William Ruto, Charity Ngilu, Mwai Kibaki, and Michael Wamalwa Kijana.

In the 2000s, there was the Kibaki-Raila rivalry, Yash Pal Ghai’s constitutional engineering, Kalonzo Musyoka as ‘kati kati’ man, and Moody Awori.

The 2010s was the Uhuruto time, Hassan Joho in Mombasa, Raila’s un-governability crusade, the Uhuruto breakup, and Irungu Kang’ata wa Barua.

Political relevance

Besides Ruto and Raila, the players in the 2020s include Farouk Kibet, Kipchumba Murkomen, ‘Engineer’ Oscar Sudi, the Wamunyoro villager or Rigathi Gachagua, George Natembeya and Kalonzo Musyoka.

The Ruto-Raila alliance is in trouble with Raila losing political relevance and Ruto, as prompted by Kibet, Murkomen, and Sudi, struggling to survive.

Ruto tries to recover political grounds that he lost after what seemed like an unfair dumping of his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.

Instead of disappearing into political oblivion, Gachagua seemed to grow in public stature in proportion to Ruto’s perceived sinking in public approval.

It was to counter Gachagua’s influence that Ruto went back to his 2022 campaign strategy of going almost everywhere, churches included, either to defend his record or make new promises which, when compared to previous promises, raised questions about his believe-ability.

As his new campaign tours turned sour with the public chanting “Ruto must go Kasongo/Kaongo or Zakayo’’, Ruto admitted that critics had increased the number of his nicknames; not out of adoration.

 Both Ruto and Raila appeared to shoot at their political feet repeatedly as they seemed to develop autocratic leanings.

Raila’s desire to be both in and out of Ruto’s broad-based government made him lose touch with political reality which drove such ODM stalwarts as Siaya Governor James Orengo and ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna to question the Ruto-Raila alliance.

Orengo was blunt to both men stating: “Opposition politics is crucial in a democracy. When the opposition and the government begin dancing to the same tune and speaking the same language, the government becomes more corrupt, oppressive, and autocratic. .”

Ruto made Orengo’s warning of creeping autocracy appear real when, in response to Sifuna’s comments, he threatened to call an ODM meeting because he is a founder member of the ODM.

Raila made no comment having seemingly entered into Ruto’s broad-based feasting that was perceived to be autocratic. In contrast, Kalonzo takes every opportunity to identify with public cries and to hammer on Ruto’s perceived autocracy.

This contrast made Kalonzo’s star appear to rise as both Ruto’s and Raila’s appeared to dim. Becoming more assertive than before, Kalonzo imagines himself as leader of a ‘loyal Opposition’ and seemingly bequeathed the wishy washy tag to Raila who had lost touch with Gen-Z and Alpha inspired reality.

With the Raila’s political influence on the skids, and with both Ruto and Raila appearing to be derailed from earthly reality, Kalonzo started attracting other political magnets to his bus whose destination is 2027.

 Kalonzo’s fortunes got big boosting from fragmentations in Ruto’s government in which sacked leaders became new Ruto critics.

With inside information, Gachagua and former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi, chose to expose Ruto’s policy weaknesses and perceived misdeeds.

Winning strategies

Gachagua, with rare ability to work up crowds, managed to turn his impeachment saga into political capital by adopting two winning strategies.

First, he exposed supposed misdeeds in Ruto’s government and second he answered every allegation that Ruto made against him.

In denouncing Ruto as vigorously as he had done when defending the President, Gachagua increased his popularity.

On his part, Muturi had complained of the government being involved in forced abductions of the youth, his son among them.

Having been inside the Ruto machinery, the accusations the two raise have bigger rings of truth than what Ruto’s supposed ‘defenders’ can advance.

Their revelations add to Kalonzo’s growing arsenal of political missiles.

 Kalonzo, however, needs more than identifying with the cries of the people and he has two options.

First, he can hope that Ruto continues to discredit himself by making statements that can easily be challenged.

Second, he can persuade all the other political hopefuls to back him as the best option.

With no control over Ruto’s team mishandling and turning events such as a drama festival into national and international embarrassments, Kalonzo can only prepare to offer alternatives to Ruto blunders.

Ruto, for instance, raised Butere Girl’s fame worldwide and elevated Cleophas Malala into the status of an international writer of plays.

Most people knew nothing about the play — ‘Echoes of War — which had gone through various stages of ministerial approval, until the police intervened to stop the play.  

More assertive

Persuading other ambitious politicians to endorse him is harder than hoping that Ruto would indulge in messing himself up.

He needs to be more assertive and appear to lead more than he is ready to do.

This is because he compares poorly with other competitors in showing individual assertiveness on serious issues.

His desire to be a team player makes him reluctant to appear to take the lead when clear leadership is called for.

Since each of the others dreams of being president, Kalonzo’s persuasive skills will be tested in his ability to bring together existing and rising prima donnas.

One of his strengths, it seems, is to play up the Kibaki strategy of always being the second choice or preferred alternative to everyone else.

When first choices cancel each other, they all should turn to Kalonzo as the best alternative.

 Kalonzo is awakening and has made strides to being the best alternative or convincing some prima donnas to endorse him.

While he already has Eugene Wamalwa and Gachagua singing his praises, Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni seemingly abandoned Kalonzo’s loyal Opposition in order to promote Fred Matiang’i, a man of charisma who spends more time in Washington than Nairobi.

Kioni was at the airport to give Matiang’i a heroic welcome as a presidential candidate.

Persuading Matiang’i to join Kalonzo in ousting Ruto in 2027 will take serious political skills.

Then there is George Natembeya Tawe Movement which marks him as a man of influence. He has charisma, focus, and potential to be president.

Kalonzo’s challenge is to persuade Natembeya to throw his weight behind him.

With the likely support from the Wamunyoro villager (Gachagua), who appears set to decide who the candidate to oppose Ruto in 2027 would be, Kalonzo has the best chance to clinch the presidency.

This would happen if all things remain constant as of 2025. He is the awakened man to watch.