Raila’s gift and the power he wields over loyal party supporters

Election times in Kenya are political marvels to watch and 2017 stands way above the rest in terms of generating drama. While many politicians have influence on selected crowds, one remains an unusual constant in Kenya’s political gyrations, wielding a somewhat magnetic control over his followers.

Although he does not hold an elected office, Raila Odinga is seemingly so gifted with a high capacity for creating national anxiety that he appears to be untouchable.

This impression, mostly a 21st century one, partly arose from the persistent abuse of the word “independence” with regard to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

The abuse of the word “independence” was part of generated drama to frustrate IEBC’s work, sometimes through well-orchestrated court injunctions. Besides efforts to frustrate IEBC, there were other political attractions that portended gloom.

Party nominations were manufactured disasters as members traded insults and officials gave nomination certificates to two different claimants.

Good example

After the chaotic party primaries, there were exhilarating ups involving general exemplary voter behaviour - lining up for hours to vote. While dignitaries and candidates, as expected, tended to get priority without waiting in line, First Lady Margaret Kenyatta defied expectations.

Like other women in her polling station, she patiently and good-naturedly queued for three hours to cast her vote; no privileges.

There was also a lot of attention on a few counties either because of the political stakes or because they were amusing. For the first time, women won governors’ seats in straight political fights. Joyce Laboso whipped Isaac Ruto in Bomet while in Kitui, Charity Ngilu enjoyed thrashing Julius Malombe.

Kirinyaga was a contest between two strong women, with the man, Joseph Ndathi, relegated to the campaign periphery. Anne Waiguru emerged top but Martha Karua has gone to court to nullify the election.

In Nairobi, Mike Mbuvi Sonko beat Evans Kidero because he knows how to appeal to ordinary people. On being elected, he resuscitated his Sonko Rescue Team to clean up Nairobi and surprised people by diverting his celebration kitty towards paying debts. Other governors followed his lead.

Among them was the scholarly Anyang’ Nyong’o whose dreams of making Kisumu a great city were threatened by unruly mobs. Following short election-related disturbances, Prof Nyong’o stood out, urging rioters not to destroy his county on account of purported developments in Nairobi.

The people listened to him and he succeeded in restoring some normalcy.

Giving ultimatum

New abuse of the IEBC “independence”, giving ultimatums as the commission prepares to hold “fresh” elections, implies that the National Super Alliance (NASA) does not want the Supreme Court-ordered repeat election.

Placing obstacles on IEBC “independence” prepares grounds for two eventualities. First would be to petition a “listening” court to nullify the October 17 election if it does not go NASA’s way. This reality of Raila’s ability to manufacture upheavals, disorganise institutions and get benefits frequently puts the country on a political rollercoaster.

In 2007, there was the slogan “No Raila, No Peace!” and this is currently being propped up with assertions that there will be “No Election” despite the Supreme Court order.

Although Raila holds no elective office, he controls the behaviour of some elected people who appear to lapse into subservience. Such people, believing they are beholden to Raila, become willing tools of his schemes. He benefits from national anxiety.

As with the 2007 slogan, the “No Election” one is synonymous with civil commotion that would justify the building of a ‘nusu mkate’ (half loaf) bakery for him to get half-government rule.

This means the rollercoaster atmosphere is likely to continue beyond October 2017.

Prof Munene teaches history and international relations at the United States International University, Africa