Bruising political battles loom in 2015

Ideally, the year in between two General Elections should be a politically quiet one.

However, 2015 may prove decisive if the events lined up or expected to happen are anything to go by.

The circumstances of the 2013 polls, a restive Opposition and shortcomings in governance may conspire to ensure that political agitation will still dominate 2015.

The highlight of 2015 will, perhaps, be the fate of Deputy President William Ruto at the Hague-based International Criminal Court. Ruto has technically been beholden to the court since he made his first appearance on April 7, 2011. He has been charged with three counts of crimes against humanity — murder, deportation and persecution over the 2007/08 post-election violence — alongside former broadcaster Joshua arap Sang.

Ruto’s trial began on September 10, 2013 and ran throughout 2014. By the time the trial took a break on December 12, the prosecution was almost running out of witnesses. When the trial resumes next year, the prosecution will have only a few witnesses left before concluding its case.

The Deputy President will then have to either call his own defence or demand a ‘half-time’ or a ‘no-case-to-answer’ judgment if he is confident that the evidence adduced against him has not proved his case.

Already his lawyer Karim Khan said the half-time motion is very much on the cards. Sang’s lawyer Kimutai Bosek has also said it is “almost automatic” that he will file a no-case-to answer motion.

If the two file the motions and turn out positive, the accused may walk out of the court before the end of the first half of 2015. If they are unsuccessful,   they will have to call their defence which may drag the case a little longer. Either way, it is almost inevitable that Ruto will either obtain his freedom or face the prospects of conviction. The repercussions of either outcome will have far-reaching implications on Kenyan politics.

Some are already sounding optimistic after the court withdrew similar charges against Uhuru Kenyatta.

“We expect the court to, on its own motion through its relevant organs, drop the case as early as possible in the new year.

If it insists on proceeding with the case, it will be confronted with yet another situation   where it will have to acquit him for lack of credible evidence and suffer an even bigger image crisis. The choice is theirs to make,” says Dagoretti South legislator Denis Waweru, an ally of the DP.

The Okoa Kenya drive will also either gain momentum or wither away.    Conceived on July 7, the drive has travelled a tumultuous road but now appears to be losing momentum.

Two years from and to the General Election, 2015 presents itself as the most ideal year for a referendum if the county is to go that direction.   Beyond 2015, Kenyans will start to train their sights on the 2017 polls.

In the contest between   Jubilee and the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), the February by-elections in Homa Bay (Senate) and Kajiado Central (parliamentary) will set the political tone for the year.

The Homa Bay seat fell vacant following the death of Senator Otieno Kajwang’ while Kajiado Central fell vacant on appointment of ODM’s Joseph Nkaissery as the new Interior Cabinet Secretary.

Before his appointment, Nkaissery had been a political lone-ranger in Kajiado, dominated by Jubilee.

He had even been co-opted into Jubilee. As CORD fires on all cylinders to reclaim the seat and maintain its perilous standing in the National Assembly, Jubilee will be pulling all stops to clinch the seat to bolster its majority in Parliament and wipe away Opposition’s presence in Maasai land.

Actual payments

 Johnson Sakaja, The National Alliance chairman, says Kajiado is a TNA stronghold and the party will only be bringing back what ought to have been theirs in the first place.

Next year may also prove quite decisive for Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and its top leadership depending on how the “Chicken Gate” scandal unfolds.

The scam involves bribery of former Interim Independent Electoral Commission by directors of a UK firm Smith Ouzman. Already two directors of the firm, Christopher Smith and Nicholas Smith, a father and son, have been found guilty of bribing Kenyan officials by a UK court. The prosecution harped on an agreement between the directors and their Kenyan ‘fixer’ Trevy Oyombra for payment of the bribes, evidence of the actual payments and communication between those involved to successfully prosecute the case.

Most of those implicated have denied the allegations but the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission has announced that it will conduct an independent inquiry into the matter.

Given the gravity of the allegations, the huge public attention to the UK case, the image of the electoral body and the public profiles of the suspects, the Kenyan chapter of the Chicken Gate scandal will most certainly rock the Kenyan psyche in 2015.

Another event to watch in 2015 is the return of Anglo Leasing scandal. A technical team comprising officials from the Office of Director of Public Prosecutions and Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) to ‘facilitate successful prosecution’ of Anglo Leasing suspects is expected to file its report by January 4, 2015.

The team had, on December 4, asked for more time to seal loopholes in what sources said were ‘admissibility issues’ of the evidence expected to be adduced in court.

About 17 people implicated in the scam are spread in five cases expected to be filed in court once the technical team concludes its evaluation.

Anglo Leasing scandal flared up in 2004, and is said to have been part of the “side issues” which led to rejection of the proposed Constitution at the 2005 referendum.

It was not until this year when litigations arising from the scam almost threatened Kenya’s first bid for Eurobond at a time the government was choking under the weight of huge infrastructural investments of the last few years.

President Uhuru re-activated the matter, calling on relevant agencies to undertake investigations. The biggest turning point in the matter this time round appears to be the cooperation of the DPP and EACC, a new Constitution, amendments to the law and ease of mutual legal assistance.

“We will be very firm and fair in the application of the law regarding the matter. We intend to take the opportunity of the New Year to bring all these scandals of the past to a closure,” DPP Keriako Tobiko told The Standard on Sunday.

He said Kenyans should trust his office with the Anglo Leasing matter in the New Year: “We will not prosecute unless we believe we have enough evidence. We have five files with us. There are 13 others relating to the matter which were not forwarded to us. We hope in the New Year their investigations will be concluded and we should be able to close the matter once and for all,” Tobiko added.

Also to watch in the New Year is the relationship between the three arms of the government— the Judiciary, Executive and Legislature— as the State pushes forth with the implementation of the new security laws passed under controversial circumstances.

Already, CORD has gone to court challenging the legality of some of the laws.

The National Assembly, through Speaker Justin Muturi, has defended the legality of the new security laws.

The Executive has insisted not only on their legality, but also their implementation. It is now up to the manner in which the Judiciary will settle the matter, which might have a bearing on its relationship with the side that loses out.

Frustrating Executive

In the past, the Executive has blamed the Judiciary of frustrating its endeavours to provide Kenyans with security. Parliament has also in the past dismissed Judiciary pronouncements on crucial matters before it, and Judiciary itself has ignored parliamentary summonses. The Speaker of the National Assembly has resisted calls to weigh in on the matter.

“Since the matter is in court, I would rather not comment. But generally, I hope Parliament will continue to play its oversight, law-making and representative roles much better and to the benefit of all Kenyans in the New Year,” said Muturi.

Also on the cards are the TNA party elections which will kick off in the first quarter of the year. The President’s party, TNA will be on the spotlight as to how it conducts its elections. Sakaja is, however, not worried about break ups.

“We expect to commence the process with the grassroot polls in the first quarter of the year. We are also targeting to grow party membership by at least two million in the first half of the year. We will be introducing the ‘young believers’ category of membership for 14-year-olds,” Sakaja said.

He said the party election will be elevated upwards to national election where officials who will steer the party to the next General Election will be picked.