By Oscar Obonyo

NAIROBI, KENYA: Rattled by the so-called tyranny of numbers and the possibility of President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto staying in power for the next two decades, members of minority communities have kicked off a push for a Parliamentary system of Government. 

The move is persuaded by fears that the current pure Presidential system of Government focuses more on numbers, making it a near impossibility for a member from a smaller community to rise to the presidency.

Kenyatta and Uhuru hail from the populous Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities, as does former Prime Minister Raila Odinga – a Luo – who challenged the duo for the top seat in the March polls.    

“As currently structured, and with political mobilisation patterned along tribal lines, it is not foreseeable that a Ndoboro, Teso or Pokomo – their credentials notwithstanding – will be President of Kenya in the near future,” says Suna East MP Junnet Mohammed. The legislator opines that hope for the minorities only lies in a parliamentary system.  Under this arrangement, individuals who are party leaders can be catapulted to power through an indirect vote. The party with majority seats forms the Government with its leader as Head of Government.

Seeking change

The Standard On Sunday has separately established that Junnet, who is spearheading the move, is backed by a huge team of legislators, mainly from northern Kenya and minorities in Rift Valley and Coast regions. Already, the team has embarked on structured strategies with a view to influencing change.

“We have resolved to persistently push advocate for and push through this baby (parliamentary system) so that by at least by 2015 we can go to a referendum to enable Kenyans decide for themselves which system they believe best works for them,” says Junnet.

The calls by the Junnet team have found favour from Senator of Machakos County Johnstone Muthama, who has persistently protested at political domination by the larger tribes.

“During the initial coalition discussions between the former Vice President and Uhuru-Ruto, Kalonzo (Musyoka) was elbowed from the team because he lacked enough numbers to place the (negotiation) table. We can no longer allow this political discrimination and that is why we are pushing or change,” vows Muthama. The Senator says he is currently lobbying with colleagues in the Senate before bringing forth in the floor of the House relevant legislation to address the concern. Changes, he claims, will be achieved before the next Parliament. But former MP Danson Mungatana, who is allied to President Kenyatta’s The National Alliance (TNA) party, dismisses the latest move as a ploy by the Raila-led Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) to save face after losing elections.

“CORD did not lose this election because of the current system of Government and neither will they under the parliamentary system. Let us not change gears here – if you lose an election, the way I did, you go home and relax and wait for another opportunity,” says the lawyer, who unsuccessfully vied for the Governor’s seat in Tana River County.  However, Junnet maintains that same as in developed democracies the focal point should shift from individuals and communities to political party ideals. In a system where parties are strong, he argues that a leader who best propagates the ideals of his or her party will be elected President and not an individual from a huge tribal community.

“I am a living example of a member of a minority who has climbed the political ladder courtesy of the strength of my party, in an area that is predominantly Luo,” says Junnet, a member of the Somali community from Northern Kenya.

“If tribe was an issue among ODM supporters in Migori County, I would definitely not have been voted to Parliament. I believe I was elected purely on account of merit and because of my ability to best propagate ODM ideals, and this is how we want Kenyans to vote,” says Junnet, former Mayor of Migori in Luo Nyanza.

But pointing out that majority of Kenyans want to have a direct say on who their next President is, Mungatana is firmly opposed to the parliamentary system. The system, he argues, is a recipe for political chaos as it creates two centers of power – a Prime Minister from the majority party, who is Head of Government and a ceremonial President, who is Head of State.

“Besides, the current presidential system does not give outright advantage to those from the larger communities. I believe that anybody can become President depending on how one plays his or her cards. In the March elections, for example, there were about four Kikuyu presidential candidates but voters settled only on one and there was also a Luhya – the second largest community – who faired rather poorly,” argues Mungatana. The TNA politician also discounts fears the Kikuyu and Kalenjin will remain at the helm of power for a long time to come: “Kenyan politicians and voters have a strange way of cobbling up political marriages of the big tribes every election year. In 2007 the Kalenjin went with the Luo, this year it was the Kikuyu and Kalenjin on one hand and the Luo and Kamba on the other. Who says the arithmetic will not change in 2017?”

Big tribe factor

Even if it does, Junnet argues it shall still involve a combination of the big tribes. His concern remains this big-tribe domination can be broken to give members of the smaller community a realistic chance at the presidency. That is why he is championing the “presidential to parliamentary system” campaign. But Chairman of University of Nairobi’s Political Science and Public Administration department Adams Oloo offers some lessons. A parliamentary system, he asserts, is not an automatic guarantee to political avenues for the minority.

“Though purely presidential, the American system, for example, does not apply the rule of simple majority but rather the electoral college vote system. This means that one can win the popular vote but still fail to be President by missing out on the weighted votes from the states,” he says. Observing that the presidential poll in Kenya has twice been stolen, Muthama is among those advocating for a collegiate system, same as America’s. The Senator argues the presidential poll is prone to rigging and suggests a president be identified through bloc county votes.

“Like in the US, let us declare one a presidential winner on the account of the number of counties that vote in his or her favour. That will eliminate the rigorous task of vote-counting across the country by reducing the arithmetic to simple 47 counties,” opines Muthama.

Dr Oloo advises that the current system can still be retained with relevant amendments to the electoral legislations. One such way, he observes is adoption of    the so-called “consociational democracy” – a political model that deliberately gives the minorities a more formidable presence in Government.