What has Uhuru reserved for Mudavadi?

By KIPKOECH TANUI

The Cabinet is in place and two slots of the 18  President Uhuru and his deputy William Ruto promised have been left vacant for strategic reasons. My prediction is that the powerful docket of Interior and Coordination of National Government, which is directly under the President and closer in powers to former Prime Minister’s office, would go to Musalia Mudavadi.

Why? Mudavadi is from Western Kenya which only got one slot, he is a former Deputy Prime Minister and Uhuru’s running mate in 2002, he is also like the President not only a former DPM but Finance and Local Government minister too.

Again, he is amiable and for strategic reasons, Uhuru would want to send out the message that he is reconciliatory and accommodative given that 2017 isn’t far after all.

Moreover, he needs to soothe Abaluhya who were made to believe he had twice duped Mudavadi, only to yank back what he had given him.

Also consider this; Uhuru knows Ruto is not just a political powerhouse but a schemer with greater ambitions than lurking in his shadows; what better person to keep him in check than ‘Messi’?

It is for this reason that there has always been a perception that Ruto is cold towards Mudavadi, especially given some ‘friends’ Musalia has within Kanu.

Despite his indecisiveness and playing too safe like a player who does not want to be tackled or felled, there is one more reason why Mudavadi could be the best bet.  Mudavadi could soon be the enforcer of the Jubilee edict through ‘coordination’. It has to do with Raila, who Uhuru and Ruto want to obliterate politically.

To break the dominance of Raila in Western and beckon the Luhya into the Jubilee fold, it may sound more strategic to bring him in. This way, a possibility of Raila-Mudavadi reunion would be warded off.

The friends of the President and Ruto tell me that the two really aren’t so worried about Raila’s former running Mr Kalonzo Musyoka.

In fact, the grapevine has it that if the former Mwingi North MP gets an MP to resign his seat so that he can contest and head back to Parliament to lead the Opposition from within, then they would make sure they win against him.

Now you know for what reasons the portfolio of Labour, Social Security and Services, was left open.  Should someone give way to Kalonzo, the cunning and scheming Uhuru and Ruto will simply dangle the carrot:

‘Choose between a man or woman whom we shall pick to join our Cabinet and the one headed to the Opposition benches,” the electorate will be told and you know what magic this can do in Ukambani, a region that you could — in Kenya’s ethnicised politics — say has never known or liked being in the Opposition! 

Now, in case you forgot, Uhuru also has another strategy for the days ahead; Constitutionally, he has another four potential Cabinet slots he could create at his discretion because the Constitution allows for  a maximum of 22 portfolios.

I may be wrong, but again I might not. These four slots could later be deployed to tame Ruto and his vast political constituency in the Jubilee’s GPRS ethno-political map.

To answer the question of whether Ruto won’t get the two seats if the Cabinet portfolios go up, I will ask you to produce a document that shows how Uhuru’s TNA and Ruto’s United Republican Party, detailed how they were going to share the positions on a 50-50 per cent basis.

Dress differently

Secondly, I will point you in the direction of the toothless paper tiger that retired Mzee Kibaki signed with Raila and more specifically to that inoperable paragraph with the proviso for ‘consultations’.

Then I will ask you to recall the late John Michuki, an Uhuru diehard, saying even if you stop by farmer Njuguna’s fence and sought his opinion on whether there will be rain so you can plant, you will have ‘consulted’ him?

I know that we have a more robust Constitution, and which may secure Ruto’s interests.

But that cannot on its own rein in the mischief of the Chief Executive if he chooses to play dirty at some stage and insist they dress differently with Ruto when they go to functions.

My calculation is that Uhuru and Ruto, being students of Kanu’s bare-knuckle, conspiratorial, carrot-and-stick politics, know too well that in politics, mercantilism and freebies rule the World. They also know, in line with this tutelage, how to take ‘defections to the next level, by packaging it to look like a smart career move.

In short, soon both after raiding the fringe parties and winning them to their coalition, they would need gullible members of Raila’s coalition.

That way, you can see how the posts left vacant for speculative reasons will come in handy.

Then there is the hidden gem, the carrot that will attract little attention. Let us call them principal secretaries, then ambassadorial appointments. 

For now Uhuru and Ruto hold the knife and the yam, but you don’t know how long this will last, even if you are the most ardent of optimists. 

My take is that the cord woven by The Hague Court binding Uhuru and Ruto may not be strong enough to survive the strain of political struggles since both of them, are colossuses in their own right.

Soon, Uhuru will be under pressure from his circle to keep Ruto in check. Ruto would in turn be under pressure from his Rift Valley vote basket to call in his ‘loan’ to Uhuru ahead of 2018 where they expect Uhuru and his people to reciprocate by giving him way at State House. 

In short guys, it may be too optimistic to expect they will don the same shirts, ties, and suits for the next one or two years because politics is an ambitious and ruthless game.

The writer is Managing Editor, Daily Editions, at The Standard.

ktanui@standardmedia.co.ke