James ole Kiyiapi has mistakenly cited Barack Obama’s success in America in 2008 as indication that he, too, can win.
This belief is based on the idea that Obama won despite being an underdog and somewhat an outsider to the elite political class. This analysis, however, is deficient. For one thing, Obama did not start his political career by going for the top seat of president as Kiyiapi is doing.
Instead he started as US House of Representative, Illinois State senator, and then went for president. This maintains a pattern in American politics that those who went on to become president were previously governors or senators.
The equivalent Kenyan situation is that voters will not give you a second look unless you have proved your electability and performance at lesser elective seats such as the parliamentary one.
So contrary to the hype, Obama’s journey to the top from 1996 was an unrushed, hard-slog, starting from the trenches and working his way up with considerable patience.
For ole Kiyiapi to win the presidency on his first attempt, despite having absolutely no previous political success even as a councillor, he needs a miracle of Cinderella proportions.
Such miracles are rare in politics and Kiyiapi shouldn’t count on them. This is unfortunate because his otherwise bright public record might have counted for something had he tried a lesser position where he stood a better chance of winning.
Xavier Owing, Nairobi
