By Oscar Obonyo

Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi continues to confound his rivals with his strong showing as a second choice candidate across the country.

In a race against all those who have declared interest in State House, the Sabatia MP only manages fifth place, according to the latest polls, with his support still in single digits. However, going head-to-head against his rivals, he outperforms all but the top two contenders.

This has sparked debate over whether his chances of victory at the polls with his support still in single digits. However, going head-to-head against his rivals, he outperforms all but the top two contenders. This has sparked debate over whether his chances of victory at the polls are dependent on factors beyond his control.

Reports that he performs worse against PM Raila Odinga (45:55) than Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta does (50:50), however, present a challenge for central Kenya players said to be backing his candidacy as a fallback position should Uhuru Kenyatta not run. Some pundits say a better gamble for these ‘old money’ players would be to stick with Uhuru or reach out to frontrunner Raila Odinga.

Others say it is still early in the day and Mr Mudavadi’s broad popularity should see him eat into his rivals’ numbers even further as March 4, 2013 approaches.

Mudavadi, who is still struggling to rally western Kenya behind him, has been receiving a warm reception in pre-campaign rallies elsewhere, including in regions where stronger rivals like Uhuru and Eldoret North MP William Ruto enjoy fervent support.

This is aptly captured in the latest opinion poll by Infotrak Harris, which indicates he is the next best thing for most voters if their preferred presidential candidate is not on the ballot.

Most supporters of Uhuru, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, Assistant minister Peter Kenneth and Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua say they would throw their support behind Mudavadi. Even backers of the Prime Minister, who he deserted recently, would vote for the Sabatia MP if the ODM leader were not in the race.

The poll findings come at a time when Mudavadi’s campaign team is attracting sizeable crowds across the country. The Deputy PM, who considers himself ‘The People’s Project’, has in the process been nicknamed ‘Macharia’, ‘Musila’ and ‘Maslah’, by fans in Central Kenya, Eastern and Northern Kenya.

While opinion is divided as to the implications of this trend, politicians and polling experts are in agreement the United Democratic Forum (UDF) flag-bearer can build on the wide public acceptability to propel his presidential ambition. Noting that Mudavadi was a late entrant in the race, Information assistant minister George Khaniri says the Deputy PM’s numbers are on the rise. The Hamisi MP says Wamalwa should, therefore, drop his bid to be president “in favour of his senior kinsman”.

Caesar Handa, CEO of Strategic Africa, says Mudavadi is presenting himself as the sensible compromise, “a safe pair of hands” that can be trusted by all.

Mudavadi’s candidature, explains Infotrak CEO Angela Ambitho, has great chances if certain candidates do not vie for the top seat: “In fact, if this were to happen, he would absorb approximately 16 per cent of the supporters of the other candidates not in the running.”

When asked about the Deputy PM’s plans to grow his support, Kibisu Kabatesi, Mudavadi’s official spokesman, says too much is being read into the polling numbers. He questions Infotrak’s insinuation that Mudavadi “can only win if all the other presidential aspirants drop out”.

“How is that possible?” he poses. According to Ms Ambitho, Mudavadi will gain most if Raila, Uhuru and Ruto do not vie. While charges at the International Criminal Court and integrity challenges may knock out or slow down Uhuru or Ruto, Raila remains a formidable barrier to Mudavadi’s campaign. In a head-to-head contest, the Deputy PM would beat Ruto by 63 to 41 per cent and Kalonzo 53:47. However, he would be floored by Uhuru 58:42 and Raila 55:46.

Ambitho says Mudavadi can only win against Raila if all other aspirants step down in his favour and he still manages to eat into the PM’s support or to prevent their supporters from choosing ODM.

Tribulations of others

“It imperative to note that other candidates also benefit in the alternative choice scenario,” she says. “As much as Mudavadi may gain if some candidates do not vie, so do other candidates. Remember, he can only gain an average of between 16-20 per cent from the other contenders.”

Concurring that Mudavadi’s chances improve significantly in the absence of most challengers, Handa also notes their support base would not automatically be transferred to Mudavadi. Based on the latest poll, the Strategic Africa boss projects a higher number of undecided voters. This means a Raila victory, as predicted by Infotrak Harris, is less of a certainly against Mudavadi.

ODM Parliamentary Group Secretary Ababu Namwamba’s reading of the situation is that Mudavadi is only second best. Besides, he points out, there is no way everybody will pull out of the race to make his first round strategy a reality.

“If I were him, I would be a very worried man,” Mr Namwamba says. “Being the favoured alternative candidate is not a compliment, but a statement of fact that you can only be a political beneficiary of the tribulations of others.”

Even as they walk their separate ways, the Raila and Mudavadi camps are locked in a war of supremacy in western Kenya. Presently, the battle between the two camps revolves around the Uhuru factor in the forthcoming elections.

Kabatesi claims ODM has been manipulating opinion polls by targeting Uhuru: “The moment it was suspected that Uhuru could team up with Mudavadi, their strategy has been to bolster Uhuru’s numbers,” Kabatesi says. “More than anyone else, Raila wants to face Uhuru in the runoff. He desperately wants Uhuru so he can use the 41-(communities)-against–one strategy (that was used in 2007) in the run-off.”

Dismissing this as propaganda, Namwamba says Mudavadi’s team knows only too well that it is riding on Uhuru’s crest: “It is like (800 metres world beater David) Rudisha hoping to win a race through prayer that his lead challengers should drop out of the race or show up with stomach upsets. Mudavadi’s chances are dependent on sheer luck and factors beyond his control.”

Ambitho adds that the choice of a running mate could be a contributor to victory. Should Mudavadi choose a running mate with a huge support base, he would be in better shape for a head-to-head fight