By Kipkoech Tanui

We can now say with certainty elections are seven months away. It is also definite there might not be any other Presidential candidate joining the line-up.

As things are, we can also say five or six of the cast currently warming up stand a chance to get to State House, especially if they play the ethnic card well and blindfold their ‘people’ long enough to just elect them on the basis of the shared bloodlines, and top-up with  votes they will collect out there. 

Their chances would be more assured if they decide to team up, one as running mate of the other. However, I am aware this possibility is remote because they first of all seem to want to run to ensure they force a run-off, and the target of course is Prime

Minister Raila Odinga, and there is no guarantee they will stick together in the next round.

Three unrelated incidences have conspired to remove all uncertainties we have been grappling with. The first is the unfortunate death of one contender, Prof George Saitoti. I do not for once believe the pedestrian verdict that Saitoti was already past his sell-by date, and therefore an expired political pastry on Kenya’s dusty shelves.

On the contrary, as my little inquiry has found out, Prof Saitoti could have been the ‘project’ of someone powerful, waiting to be unleashed at an appropriate time, when the katengwa kaninis (in Agikuyu this means small bulls) stomping and gamboling around us will have sung themselves hoarse and burnt themselves out.

Even if I were not going to vote for him, and with due respect to his memory and family, I still believe his death took away some flavour from the big race and sealed the question we had on what impact he was likely to make.

The other uncertainty removed is that when do we actually vote. That was set this week when on the strength of 4-1 the

Appellate judges decided it is on March 4 next year.
witchdoctors’ client

The final uncertainty removed is on whether Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto will be able to run because of their crimes against humanity charges at The Hague. Luckily for them, ICC picked on a date for the start of hearing that is outside the election circle and March 4 orbit.

However, in case of a run-off forced by failure of either of the candidates to garner the 50-per cent-plus-one rule, there might be more drama awaiting us in the second round, especially if either of those gentlemen who will be physically required at The

Hague courtroom will be in the top two category.

With due respect to some of the presidential candidates whom I would not want to name because I may be wrong since my submission is not based on any scientific inquiry, where they talk of empirical data, I will just talk of those who I think have a chance to get to the big house. Their capacity to win will of course depend on whether they will pick a running mate from this category, and if the one picked will come along with his ‘supporters’.

This is my own assessment as a student of Kenyan politics which is unfortunately laden with ethnic baggage, so much that even a smoker of weed and a champion of the frothy stuff, can be assured of winning over a man with as impeccable a record as Prof James ole Kiyiapi.

It is also this dalliance with the goddesses of tribe and stolen wealth that could give us a President known to be a ‘good’ client of witchdoctors over that man of the collar called Mutava Musyimi or the ever-too-cautious ‘middle-grounder’ Peter Kenneth. 

Why am I saying this? The next President will likely come from a member of one of the four big tribes. Not that the tribe alone will be able to push one of their own through, but its sizeable vote is a headstart.

However, this could change if the bigger ‘tribe’ called Kenya, made up of people who have risen above ethic loyalties, decide to vote because they certainly are more and are even to be found among the four tribes.

This may sound cruel and crude but on this basis, I believe that Mr Raila Odinga (Luo), Mr Uhuru Kenyatta (Kikuyu),  Musalia Mudavadi (Luhya) or Mr William Ruto (Kalenjin) and  Mr Kalonzo Musyoka (Kamba) may be next President or the game-changers if they switch over to be the kingmakers. 

I will put in this category the regularly stoned-faced and too often scornful and sneering but uncorrupt Martha Karua of Narc Kenya, though I do not know what she will do without the rest of the non-Kikuyu voters to make up for the huge vote that won’t come her way because Son of Jomo is running. 

Now before you call me a tribalist, I will here take into account certain realities swirling around us. First, unless you convince me

Kenya is now a tribeless society, we must live with the contradictory reality of our country and politics.

Secondly, these four do not have to run separate ways if they want State House. They can cut a deal where one is the other’s running mate, and their chances will improve. So you may not like one or imagine he can win, but they can make any of the other win and end up his or her co-ruler.

Finally, I am not for a moment saying all the candidates will harvest all the votes from their communities. Certainly not.
All they have is a ‘head-start’ but they will still have to court say the ‘tribeless’ and the Muslims. 

The writer is Managing Editor, Daily Editions, at The Standard.
ktanui@standardmedia.co.ke