By VITALIS KIMUTAI and ATHMAN AMRAN

ODM has formally changed its constitution to allow any member to run against party leader Raila Odinga for the Orange presidential ticket.

“The National Governing Council has resolved to amend nomination and election rules that made the party leader the automatic presidential candidate,” announced ODM Secretary General Anyang’ Nyong’o. “We are opening space for others to challenge (Prime Minister Raila Odinga) for the position.”

The controversial rule on an automatic flag bearer was cited as one reason for the exit of Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi from the party in April this year.

It had been created earlier to tame the ambitions of Eldoret North MP William Ruto, another former ODM leader who later fell out with Raila and left the orange party.

Plans to change the article were under way by the time Mudavadi, who was also deputy party leader, bolted out to United Democratic Forum. His critics, therefore, dismissed his move as an excuse.

At the time, however, the Sabatia MP was concerned that the change had been put off until after a party registration deadline that could have seen him trapped in ODM at the mercy of party organs that might not deliver on their promise.

The decision by ODM’s National Governing Council comes at a time Raila has no opposition to speak of inside ODM. New opinion polls also indicate he is still way ahead of fellow presidential aspirants in rival parties. With Mudavadi out of the way Raila’s position as the party flag bearer is almost certainly sealed. He, however, says the change brings about a “level playing field”.
“We are changing our rules to accommodate competing views and to allow a level playing field,” Raila said. The PM said the party needs a revamped and efficient elections board capable of conducting free and fair nomination that ensures the ticket goes to the most competitive men and women.

He accused his rivals of ganging up to block him from ascending to the presidency. “As a party we will fight no one, we will not gang up against anyone,” Raila said. “But we will never give up fighting for Kenya. We will gang up only for Kenya.”

Party chairman Henry Kosgey said the adoption of a new party constitution was a sign of ODM’s commitment to bring about change.

Prof Nyong’o, who is also the Minister for Medical Services, said the nomination primaries for the presidential ticket would be presided over by the National Election Board at a National Delegates Conference (NDC).

“In the event only one presidential aspirant showing interest in the seat, he/she will be presented for endorsement by the NDC members,” Nyong’o said.

For the parliamentary and county elective posts, the nomination will be presided over by County Election Board comprising of men and women of high integrity to be picked by NGC members.

An electoral college will use universal suffrage to cater for cases of special needs and interests according to the revised constitution.

“Nomination disputes will be resolved within two weeks to allow the party to prepare for campaigns for the General Election,” Nyong’o announced.

It was also resolved that 22 campaign teams to be called ODM Mashinani to popularise the party and its presidential candidate during the campaign period will be formed. Nyong’o announced that the NDC meeting at Bomas of Kenya had also resolved to change the slogan Chungwa Moja Maisha Bora to Chungwa Maisha Bora.

Those at the meeting included James Orengo, Dalmas Otieno, Joseph Nyagah, Franklin Bett, Musa Sirma, Mohamed Elmi, Amason Kingi, Beatrice Kones, Margaret Wanjiru, Joseph Nkaissery, Ayiecho Olweny, Hassan Joho, Elizabeth Ongoro, Julius Murgor and George Aladwa.

According to a survey conducted by Infotrak Harris, Raila remains the most preferred presidential aspirant if elections were to be held Saturday.

First round win

But the Langata MP would not win in the first round owing to the constitutional requirement of an over 50 per cent win. But the PM would fulfill the other requirement of garnering at least 25 per cent of votes cast in half of the 47 counties.

And according to the projections of Infotrak, Raila who has support in 27 counties is the only aspirant who would meet this requirement. His closest challenger, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta would get over 25 per cent in just 13 counties.

Infotrak Harris CEO Angela Ambitho released the survey, conducted between June 7 and June 15, covering all the 47 counties, in Nairobi Friday.

Raila’s popularity is at 36.6 per cent followed by Uhuru at 21.9 per cent, which would necessitate a run-off between the two. Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is ranked third, with 9.6 per cent followed by Eldoret North MP, William Ruto (9.4 per cent), Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi (8.4 per cent), Gichugu MP Martha Karua (five per cent), and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth (2.3 per cent).

Mudavadi is, however, the most preferred alternative presidential candidate for majority of Kenyans if their preferred presidential candidate is not on the ballot.

“He is still the most preferred alternative presidential candidate for supporters of Raila, Uhuru, Kenneth, Karua, and Wamalwa,” Ambitho said.

She, however, said the choice of a running mate could tip the balance.

“And a possible game-changer also is how individual aspirants tackle emerging issues,” she said, adding that the candidates need to crystalise what they stand for through manifestos and public rallies.

Besides Raila and Uhuru, who enjoy support of over 25 per cent in 27 and 13 counties, the survey shows Ruto commands the support of 25 per cent in eight counties, Kalonzo in three, and Mudavadi in two. Karua and Kenneth have no county.

Counties in which Raila command support include Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Turkana, Samburu, Trans Nzoia, Narok, Kajiado, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, and Nairobi. Uhuru on the other hand enjoys support from Lamu, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Laikipia, Nakuru, and Kajiado. Kalonzo’s over 25 per cent support is in Kitui, Machakos, and Makueni, while Ruto’s can be traced in West Pokot, Samburu, Uasin Gishu, Keiyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Kericho, and Bomet. Musalia draws his support in Kakamega and Vihiga counties.

The strong showing by Raila in the opinion polls is indeed surprising, considering that he has had minimal political activity during the period under survey owing to official duties overseas.

Even more addling is that the survey was carried out during the period when excerpts of damaging reports on the PM from his former aide Miguna Miguna’s book, ‘Peeling Back The Mask’ were being serialised in a local daily.

This notwithstanding, the PM also beats all other presidential aspirants in support across all age group followed by Uhuru. Much of Raila’s support comes from the youth between 18 and 20 years (42.9 per cent), while much of Uhuru’s support comes from Kenyans aged between 26 and 30 (23.5 per cent).

Raila still leads among male and female supporters, with 40.1 per cent, and 33.5 per cent, followed by Uhuru.

“Just because you are young it does not mean the youth will vote for you and it also does not mean just because you are a woman women will vote for you,” Ambitho said.