By OSCAR OBONYO

What started off as a friendly match between a captain and his deputy has now turned into a vicious knockout tournament. Now either of the players – Prime Minister Raila Odinga or his deputy Musalia Mudavadi – must be bundled out of the game.

This is the tragedy of what was meant to be a routine practice between the ODM players ahead of the main match in the General Election. According to a top ODM politician who is privy to the secret pact between Raila and Mudavadi, the "mock fight" was meant to achieve two key objectives.

Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi (centre) speaks after he held strategy talks with Western MPs last week. [PHOTO: FILE/STANDARD]

"To ease pressure on Mudavadi from his Luhya kinsmen, who were calling on him to go for the top seat, it was agreed that this time around he should not be given the running mate slot on a silver platter, but must be seen to fight for the top prize. And by splitting camps, the idea was to help popularise ODM countrywide," says the politician, who cannot be named for purposes of confidentiality on the deal.

Partisan stand

But because their supporters were unaware of the "friendly match" pact, they took a partisan stand and cheered the players on. And the foot soldiers of the two shot themselves in the foot by pouring fuel to the already burning fire, through venomous public outbursts.

"It is now a high tempered match that has acquired a life of its own. The danger with this is that even the players themselves are no longer in control of the tempo of the game. Nobody for sure knows the gravity of injuries, once the final whistle is blown," says the politician.

Speaking a couple of days ago in Ugenya, Siaya County, during the funeral of National Cohesion and Integration Commission vice-chair, Mary Onyango, Public Service Minister Dalmas Otieno seemed to allude to the said pact, and even accused the Sabatia MP of contravening the "rules of the game".

"When we agreed that the deputy party leader should be released to campaign separately, the whole idea was to help popularise the party. But instead, he opted to foster personal interests," protested the minister.

But it is now too late to set the record straight as the fans have already invaded the pitch in a free for all brawl. And because Mudavadi is assumedly guilty of breaking rules of the friendly match, he is likely to leave the club.

"Even if he wanted to remain in ODM, Mudavadi has already exhibited his other tough side that the PM might not have known. He has to move on or risk giving Raila a chance for revenge," says Prof Frank Matanga of Masinde Muliro University.

The on-going Raila-Mudavadi debate has generated great interest in western Kenya. An aspirant for the Funyula parliamentary seat, Vincent Odwara, argues by sticking with ODM, Mudavadi risks being locked out of participation in active politics.

"Unlike previous instances where one would easily jump ship to another party upon being short-changed, the new Constitution prohibits last-minute manoeuvres. A decision must be arrived at now as to where exactly he wants to move," says the Ford-Kenya politician.

But former Cabinet minister Amukowa Anangwe says Mudavadi’s decision should be guided by real politics and not personalised differences with the PM.

"It makes political sense to work with people you do not like if there is convergence of ideology. If Raila and Mudavadi still share political ideals, then they had better stick together," says Anangwe, a political science lecturer at University of Dodoma, Tanzania.

Bumpy ride

Noting that the game of politics is a bumpy ride, Anangwe warns that whichever path the DPM opts to take he should expect pitfalls.

Mudavadi’s first challenge is how to anchor his campaign on a national platform while at the same time fashion himself as a community leader – a tag he has all along shunned in his political career that spans two decades.

"I believe he now sees the political sense of hiding in his community. And I am sure if he makes a serious stab at the presidency, it will help to unite the Luhya community," says Prof Matanga. But Anangwe thinks the eleventh hour attempt by Mudavadi, who has fashioned himself as a nationalist, to get absorbed in local Luhya politics will be detrimental. He says getting immersed in the dynamics of local intra-tribal and clan politics is a time-consuming venture that might leave Mudavadi "totally lost".

Sub-tribes

The giant Luhya community is made up of 17 sub-tribes, each with intricate political leanings. Although there is hope the Mudavadi factor might unite locals, there are inherent fears of political competition among politicians in ODM, Ford-Kenya, New Ford Kenya and Labour Party of Kenya, who may be compelled to jostle for positions from one pot.

"There are also two types of individuals who could deal the DPM a fatal blow to his career – those hanging on his coat to create a wave that will enable them win elections and the turncoats misleading him in order to take up his place within ODM," says Anangwe.

Indeed vocal Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale concedes that the Mudavadi factor, if well handled, will create a wave in Luhyaland that will sweep aside PM’s perceived diehard supporters like Ababu Namwamba (Budalang’i) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Butere).

"Mudavadi is not a warthog, which gets a knock on the head and forgets the following day. He took his lesson in 2002 (when he went against the grain and lost Sabatia seat) and he will not be making a similar mistake," says Khalwale.

Even if Mudavadi moves to another club, Matanga and Anangwe advise against rough play. According to the two analysts, the "friendly match" dream can be kept alive, owing to the possibility of the two players converging after the first round of elections.