By KEN-ARTHUR WEKESA

Political baggage on the backs of presidential hopefuls may change their dreams into nightmares.

The quest by Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, George Saitoti, William Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua may face turbulence over their previous political engagements.

As Prime Minister, Raila stands blamed for selectively fighting corruption, and this notion could weigh heavily on him.

"He will have a difficult time in explaining to the electorate why he defended his allies like Charity Ngilu and Mudavadi when they were mentioned in the water scandal and the cemetery scam," says Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale.

Although the PM sought to clear his name in the Kazi kwa Vijana scandal, this is another baggage Raila has to grapple with.

Political disloyalty

Nominated MP Musikari Kombo observes Raila’s trait of disloyalty to political partners could also be his undoing.

"When Kijana Wamalwa democratically took over Ford- Kenya after the death of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Raila fought him viciously and withdrew his support," he says.

Joseph Magut, a political scientist, says Railaphobia, especially among the Kikuyu, will definitely isolate him from the vote-rich Central regions, who feel a Raila regime will pursue vengeance against them.

On Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Magut says the fact that the Gatundu South MP was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, means he may not be alive to the real issues facing wananchi and thus, may not even be entrusted to articulate or address them.

"His presidency will undeniably side with the elite and rubber stamp the status quo," he says.

Larry Gumbe says Uhuru is seen as a continuation of an old order under his father whose presidency was laced with tribalism, land grabbing, and squatter problems.

Rogue regime

"Kenyans see Uhuru as a perpetuation of a rogue Kenyatta regime that created the Kiambu Mafia who isolated everyone and swore not to let the presidency cross River Chania," Prof Gumbe says.

He says Uhuru’s alleged link to post-election violence that led to the killing of more than 1,200 people and his subsequent indictment by the International Criminal Court is a notable baggage. Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, according to analysts, is seen as an aspirant yet to extricate himself from the shadow of the Kanu era.

"He is not seen outside the sleuth of Moi who mentored own man," says Gumbe.

Magut says Mudavadi is a soft and malleable character that explains why former President Moi picked him to be Vice-President when the Kanu boat was capsizing in 2002.

Musalia was dragged in the Sh68 billion shillings Goldernberg scandal in mid 1990s after taking over as Finance Minister. But has since been cleared of any wrongdoing in the scam.

He was also mentioned in the Sh283 million cemetery scandals that saw his Local Government PS Sammy Kirui fired. The DPM has since cleared his name.

In the recent times, Mudavadi’s bold and abrasive campaigns for the ODM presidential ticket has vindicated him from being the chocolate soldier, cute in uniform and boots and comfortable with playing second fiddle.

Court cases

Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale says William Ruto is a classic example of a Moi ideological orphan. The Eldoret North MP was cleared by the courts in a case involving irregular allocation of Kenya Pipeline land worth Sh96 million. But the employment of a critical witness in the affair in the ministry he controlled has raised questions about the case.

Ruto has also been sued for allegedly grabbing land in Eldoret Municipality.

The case is expected to be resolved outside court, was reported early this month.

Although Ruto fought viciously to have his name cleared over the maize scandal, the Ikolomani legislator says Ruto still has an uphill task in persuading the electorate to endorse his bid.

"Whereas the courts cleared him, it is the court of public opinion that counts at the ballot," he says.

The Eldoret North MP is seen as part of the architects of the YK’ 92 design that fought tooth and nail to retain the Kanu regime in power.

Besides, Ruto has been indicted by the ICC for crimes against humanity, mass murder, forcible transfer of population, and persecution.

Mwalimu Mati of Mars Group says the pending ICC proceedings against Uhuru and Ruto paints them as epitomes of violence.

Coming at a time Steadman released survey findings that 28 per cent of Kenyans fear violence will erupt if the two contest, Mati says such is the baggage the two will have to deal with.

"Besides the two, most aspirants have controversial records that spring from benefiting through graft to transparency and accountability issues," he says.

Analysts also say Kalonzo has to burn the midnight oil if he has to log off the watermelon tag.

Playing to gallary

According to Khalwale, Kalonzo is an indecisive and inconsistent politician, known for playing to the gallery. He cites his conduct at the constitutional referendum where he was torn between a rock and a hard place.

"He wanted to please the Church and at the same time the President," Khalwale adds.

Kalonzo critics also accuse him of casting the image of an Ukambani VP, not a national one, concentrating his energies in wedging political wars against Water Minister Charity Ngilu. Magut and Gumbe say Kalonzo is considered an opportunist, who has perfected the art of latching onto ready-made deals. This perception led G7 bigwigs into thinking twice about their association with him.

"He is seen as the proverbial hyena waiting for some hand to fall so as to grab and bite to his fill," Magutt says.

Gumbe says: "Kalonzo’s politics is like that of Abunuasi, who runs with the hare and hunts with the hound."

Though she has since reinvented herself politically after falling out with the Kibaki regime, Gichugu MP Martha Karua may be haunted by the ghosts of her past.

"As Justice Minister, she was on the wrong side in the 2005 referendum and took a hard line position on the controversial 2007 presidential election," Gumbe says, adding this is a baggage Karua will not shed off easily.

Internal Security Minister George Saitoti’s bid may also be derailed by the adverse implication of his mention in the Goldernberg scam. He is seen as a continuation of Nyayoism.

Raphael Tuju of the Party of Action is seen as a paper tiger whose bid is slammed as a strategy to check Raila.