Poll: Raila in the lead as Uhuru closes in

By Steve Mkawale

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta would beat Prime Minister Raila Odinga by a slim margin if a run off presidential election were to be held today, a new opinion poll indicates.

According to results of the survey conducted by Ipsos-Synovate between October 15^th-23^rd there would be no outright winner in the first round of presidential elections.

Although Raila remained the most popular presidential candidate with 34 per cent of Kenyans indicating that they would vote for him, the study found out that a run off between the two would be contentious.

“Slightly more Kenyans (44 per cent) would vote for Uhuru and 41 per cent would vote for Raila in a run off,” read the results of the poll released on Friday by Ipsos-Synovate Managing Director, Maggie Ireri.

The new constitution stipulates that a candidate shall be declared president if he/she receives more that half (over 50 per cent plus one) of all votes cast in an election.

It also requires that a presidential candidate garner 25 per cent of votes in each of the 47 counties.

But the results of the survey released by the research firm indicated the probability of a run off.

None of the eight presidential candidates who were sampled during the opinion poll that targeted 2, 000 respondents was able to garner 50 per cent plus of votes cast.

The poll indicated that 24 per cent of respondents would vote for Uhuru. Eldoret North MP William Ruto would get 10 per cent of the votes.

Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka will get nine per cent, Gichugu MP Martha Karua five percent and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa two per cent.

Other presidential aspirants such as Peter Kenneth, Raphael Tuju and others would garner less than two percent of the votes, the survey show.

On the run off, the opinion poll indicated that Raila would beat Ruto by 46 per cent to 29 per cent, while a contest between the PM and Kalonzo would end up with Raila getting 44 per cent against the VP’s 37 per cent.

Ireri observed that a large number of respondents (15 per cent) remained undecided about whom they would vote for in the run off.

“This proportion of undecided voters would be enough to tilt the win either way. Our experience over the last nine years of conducting political opinion poll surveys has proven that the undecided proportion has to be less than five per cent for any survey results to be conclusive,” she noted.

It also emerged that Raila’s support was predominately from his stronghold of Nyanza, Western and Coast provinces.

Uhuru’s support in the run off was drawn mainly from Central, Eastern and Rift Valley Provinces, an indication that his close association with members of the G7 alliance was yielding fruits.

This must be good news for the G7 alliance that has been toying with the idea of either fielding a single presidential candidate against Raila or all the four presidential aspirants –Uhuru, Ruto, Kalonzo and Wamalwa go to 2012 polls then force a run off.

But the ruling by The Hague based International Criminal Court to commit to trial or set free any of the presidential aspirants on the “Ocampo six’ list might disrupt G7 plan and change the political platform in the country.

The Ipsos-Synovate opinion poll survey further indicated that 49 per cent of those who voted for President Kibaki in 2007 were most likely to vote for Uhuru in the 2012 elections while 11 per cent would vote for Raila.

At least ten per cent would vote for Kalonzo and six per cent would settle for Karua.

And 62 per cent of the respondents who voted for Raila in 2007   would still vote for him while 16 per cent were for Ruto.