There is something NASA leaders didn’t tell Kenyans

Supporters of National Super Alliance(NASA) at the Uhuru Park during the unveiling of Presidential candidate Raila Odinga and the Deputy Kalonzo Musyoka. This was during a political rally at Uhuru Park, Nairobi, on 27/04/2017.PHOTO BY PIUS CHERUIYOT

We're now on the countdown to a return match between President Uhuru Kenyatta and National Super Alliance official flag-bearer, Raila Odinga. As it was in 2013, the running mates remain Deputy President William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka.

But first we should take cognisance of the fact that on the NASA side is a new player loaned from the Rift; Chama Cha Mashinani founder and Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto. Time will tell if he will survive the Jubilee arsenal, the bow being held by William Ruto and arrows supplied by his strikers.

However, this is a cunning politician who has cleverly bought himself a risk insurance premium should he fail to clinch the Bomet governorship for the last term. Why? Because in NASA, should it win, he will get the lofty cabinet position of Deputy Premier in charge of Devolution and Planning (does the name of Anne Waiguru ring a bell?) In this case he would even forfeit the governorship if he will have won.

On the flipside, even if NASA loses he could be nominated to any of the Houses and given any of the offices reserved for the Opposition, including Leader of Minority or even Whips. So behind the NASA deal there must be a hidden gem that is holding all of them together.

As for Kalonzo, it must be that he has moved his sights to 2022 where Raila and Uhuru won't be running, and where he probably thinks like many that William Ruto would have been slowly punctured by Mount Kenya! Remember Raila hinted on a short-term president (transitory), one who will help them cross the bridge like Joshua to the Israelites in the Bible. So it is also possible that Raila has undertaken to leave office after the first-half of his term if he wins, and the deputy automatically takes over? How else can one explain Kalonzo's stoic face yesterday, too curious for a man who had vowed he must be in the next government? Which means in case of a NASA flop, he still could be having a secret card up his sleeve, but the question is what lies behind that deceptive baby face?

Obvious choice

There are of course many voices arguing the decision to field Raila-Kalonzo, though probably inevitable when the number of votes they have in the basket were considered, lacks the surprise element that would have stung the heart of Jubilee mandarins. They argue that it is a boring one, simply because it is a replica of the 2013 match. However, others would argue that if they are NASA's best bet to send Uhuru and Ruto home, so be it.

NASA founder Musalia Mudavadi seemed aware that betting on the same pair could trigger voter apathy in the strongholds of those who missed out on the ticket. That is why he said those who will withhold their vote would be no different from Jubilee agents!

The next three months will be the hardest for NASA as Kalonzo conceded. This is because Jubilee will strive to disorganise them more than ever by raiding their strongholds, especially Nyanza, Coast and Ukambani with the question: "What is in NASA for you?" They will walk around with carrot and stick and as usual with African incumbency; they will adopt the Executive lynching strategy.

Also, NASA will have to work hard to convince their supporters that the new power arrangement won't be another incoherent and noisy form of nusu mkate (power-sharing). This is because the bitter after-taste of Kibaki-Raila grand coalition sends shivers down the spines of Kenyans as they believe more in one centre of power. 

Then there is the hard truth that the Coast, Ukambani, Kisii, Luhyaland and partly Kalenjin land (because Isaac Ruto) may not move in with the numbers the principals and technical committee anticipates to force a re-run or round one win. 

But then politics as they say is the art of the possible, depending on how they play the seven cards, including those of Jubilee's tribalism, corruption, unbridled appetite for borrowing and high cost of living. Only that it is easier said than done when it comes to removing an incumbent African President in a high-ethnicised country like ours with an opposition hamstrung by flat money-bag.

Mr Tanui is the Deputy Editorial Director and Managing Editor, The Standard. [email protected]