By Joe Kiarie and Kenfrey Kiberenge
More than 130,000 guns are in the wrongs hands. The Government and experts are unanimous the country is sitting on a time bomb, which could explode any time.
Head of the Kenya National Focal Point on Small Arms and Light Weapons David Kimaiyo warns the problem could reach unmanageable levels.
"We have to address this issue once and for all, otherwise it might end up causing a serious social, economic and political problem," he warns. Past efforts to mop up and burn illegal weapons have been unsuccessful
The unit and police have made recommendations for the national policy on small arms and light weapons, proposing that say anyone found with illegal weapons be jailed for life.
"There will be death sentence if the weapon has been used to commit crime," says Kimaiyo.
"We want it to be a felony to own an unlicensed gun," says deputy police spokesman Charles Owino.
But experts say the Government is dragging its feet on a planned countrywide disarmament.
The pastoral communities in northern Kenya in particular, the experts say, possess artillery that might pose unprecedented security problems to the nation. They caution that these communities are on the verge of forming militia and war groups, which could even be pulled into future political face-offs.
Earlier last month, the BBC reported that some communities in Rift Valley were arming themselves in readiness for the 2012 elections.
Firearms are also readily available in most urban centres, where robbery with violence, carjacking and hit squads are common.
Mr Sam Kona, a conflict resolution expert, says northern Kenya is a hub for highly sophisticated modern weapons, which complement the common ones residents use to protect themselves.
"Apart from the widely available AK-47 assault rifles, ultra-light G3A3 automatic guns and grenades, the more sophisticated H-21 and M16 rifles, as well as missile launchers have now found their way in areas like Marsabit, Isiolo, Pokot and Turkana," he told The Standard on Sunday.
The expert warns the weapons could be used on large scale if quick measures are not taken to disarm communities.
"If not disarmed, these groups are likely to be more vicious in engaging Government forces in future. In the wake of the current political alignment, these groups could also be misused to participate in national violence in future, though they were not used during the post-election violence last year," Kona says.
The Government has been accused of employing ineffective disarmament techniques.
Phillip Ochieng, a conflict resolution officer at PeaceNet-Kenya, urges President Kibaki to suspend the current mission until the right framework for disarmament is put in place.
He says the exercise should be in tandem with disarmament in neighbouring countries, which supply arms to northern Kenya.
"The President should let Parliament look at this policy and pass a framework that will address disarmament in all its aspects," says Ochieng.
Kona says after years of unequal distribution of national resources, some people might use the illegal arms to ‘demand their share of the national cake’.
He shared this vital information with security organs.
Last month, the analyst made a presentation to all senior Government officials under the security docket during a ‘Peace and Security Workshop’ in Nairobi.
Disarmament
Those present were Internal Security Minister George Saitoti, Defence Minister Yusuf Hajj, Chief of General Staff Jeremiah Kianga, Internal Security Permanent Secretary Kimemia, Director General of the National Security Intelligence Service, Commissioner of Police Mathew Iteere, Commandant of Administration Police, two Provincial Security Intelligence Committees, National Steering Committee on Peace Building and Conflict Management, National Focal Point on Small Arms and Light Weapons and District Security Intelligence Committees from Upper Eastern and North Rift regions.
He says apart from the massive armament, the persistence and magnitude of pastoral conflicts is further compounded by the corresponding rise in civil militarism among the pastoralist communities.
"The proliferation of modern automatic weapons has substantially transformed the structure, content, impact and actors in pastoralist conflicts. One of the ways these transformation manifest themselves is through the introduction of the gun culture in education and socialisation," he said.
It is unclear when the planned disarmament will start.