State House: A president and his many political debts

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By Standard On Sunday Team

President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga mark the first anniversary of power sharing deal amid plummeting public approval ratings.

Coming barely a week after public tongue-lashing by members of the clergy and an opinion poll that indicated 70 per cent of Kenyans are unhappy with the coalition, Kibaki and Raila are squarely cornered.

While the concern of Raila, who plans to take another stab at the presidency in 2012, lies in the fact that he is getting a generous sprinkle of the mud flying around, President Kibaki’s headache revolves around his legacy.

After a tumultuous decade in office, will Kibaki succeed to ‘repair’ his image and leave behind a worthwhile legacy?

He rode into office with a convincing majority in 2002 — after Raila ‘anointed’ him — and presided over his rule rather confidently and singly. But his second term has not been as rosy due to a bungled presidential poll that compelled him to enter into a power-sharing agreement with Raila’s ODM. He was literally sworn in as Kenya wept and cried.

And to raise enough numbers to break the ensuing stalemate that was the 2007 election fiasco, Kibaki amassed the support of an array of regional political kingpins as well as more than 15 political parties.

Even then, this was not enough to get him home and dry. The President immediately turned to hitherto political rivals — Vice-President and ODM-Kenya leader Kalonzo Musyoka and later the PM and ODM leader.

Restore Peace

Kalonzo’s ODM-Kenya accorded him parliamentary numbers while Raila’s ODM and the President’s PNU joined hands to form the coalition Government, to restore peace countrywide and avoid an ungovernable situation of a hang Parliament.

With three years to retirement, President Kibaki is politically indebted to many people and it may not be easy for him to decide whom to repay first and when. Still there is the question of political reciprocation – and it does not come easy – as many on the list are on the 2012 race.

These are not easy debts he can run away from. There are also the post-election ghosts to worry about, meaning he can no longer afford to play the carefree politician that Kenyans have known him to be all along.

Whether he won his second term in genuinely or by fraud, these are Kibaki’s Eleventh Hour political dark secrets that he would not wish uncovered. That partly explains why commissioners of the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) have been gagged from disclosure of details of the bungled presidential elections.

Key Beneficiaries

These will linger around for a very long time and this is exactly what explains why the President is alert and appears to be in control of his own political succession.

According to our sources, President Kibaki’s grip on his destiny is so firm that it puts to shame Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta’s earlier mockery of the President as "hands off, eyes off, ears off and everything off" style of leadership. Interestingly, Uhuru is one of the key beneficiaries of the President’s schemes.

Indeed, the list of Kibaki’s creditors is long and soon they will be making a beeline to his political court, reminding him it is payback time before he leaves office.

The key ones are retired President Moi, Raila , Kalonzo, Uhuru, Justice Minister Martha Karua and Internal Security Minister George Saitoti.