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Is a reconciliation between Raila and Ruto in the works?

City News

Raila and Ruto

New-look Orange Democratic Movement national office has kicked off talks of imminent political realignments, with both the governing Jubilee coalition and Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) bracing for major shifts.

The real interest is Raila’s endorsement of office holders who are friendly to Deputy President William Ruto, after initial allegations that Secretary-General Ababu Namwamba was a double agent in a calculated move by Jubilee to infiltrate ODM. On the cards, it said, is a possible political reunion between Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga.

While a section of ODM MPs says there has been contact between Ruto and Raila, the former’s United Republican Party (URP) denied claims of a rapprochement between the former allies-turned-foes.

The former prime minister stoked further speculation when, on December 12, he joined the president and his deputy at Nyayo Stadium and later State House Garden on Jamhuri Day to celebrate Kenya’s 51 years of independence.

Jubilee moles

The entire ODM national office, which enjoys a rapport with the DP, was initially met with stiff resistance from Raila’s allies during the February 28 party elections that disintegrated into a chaotic abandonment, ostensibly to prevent a takeover of ODM by Jubilee. At the time, Raila did not have kind words for Namwamba and first deputy party leader Hassan Joho, whom he branded Jubilee “moles.” There were also allegations that the party had been hijacked by Jubilee through ODM’s chief executive Magerer Lang’at.

While Elgeyo Marakwet Senator Kipchumba Murkomen dismisses the possibility of a meeting between Raila and Ruto as “unimaginable,” Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo confirmed that the two are warming up to each other “and are said to have met.”

URP Chesumei MP Elijah Lagat posits the closing of ranks between the two adversaries as mutually complementary in their quest for political leverage.

The past two months have witnessed somewhat a cessation of ‘hostilities’ between Ruto and Raila, which Murkomen attributes to the absence of serious issues that could pit them against each other. “In the recent past, there has been nothing that could force them to take divergent positions.

Raila has been slow to accept change and what cannot be contested is that he has been forced to change tack as he starts winding down from fighting for the presidency,” the senator says in response to reports that ODM and URP leaders met at Raila’s house in Karen.

The meeting reportedly took place just a week before the death of the former PM’s staunch ally and Homa Bay Senator Otieno Kajwang’.  An ODM MP from Nyanza who declined to be named claimed he was privy to talks held at a mutual friend’s house in Lavington.

Ruto’s director of communication Emmanuel Tallam poured cold water on the suggestion of talks of reconciliation between the DP and former prime minister. “The position remains as it was in the 2013 elections. If there was an election today, Raila would go his way and Ruto his. Nothing has changed,” Tallam stated.

ODM MPs insist a deal is in the works and that the two are expected to close ranks in the countdown to 2017 elections. A section of Ruto’s side of Jubilee often complains of skewed public service appointments.

Matters came to a head when the deputy president’s office was deprived of resources. Early this year, DP chief of staff Maryanne Keitany expressed frustration when financial requisitions for the DP’s office took long to process by the Office of the President, occasioning delays in procurement for the office. It is against this backdrop that MPs allied to Ruto lament that they have been sidelined to the periphery of the coalition.

“Ababu and Ruto are bosom buddies. There is no way Raila was going to accept Ababu to be at the helm of ODM because his friendship with the DP was perceived to be untenable with the ODM leader.

Reassure supporters

There was obviously a trade off, but its details are hazy,” explains Eng Gumbo. The lawmaker says Raila is currently “conflicted” and does not understand whether to remain in the Opposition or play a role in government.

On their part, Uhuru and Ruto were forced to reassure supporters that their coalition was intact and designed for the long haul. They were prompted by frenzied celebrations in TNA strongholds following the dropping of ICC criminal charges against the president. However, in URP zones, the mood was subdued since Ruto’s case at the ICC is still ongoing.

In late October, Ruto travelled to Migori for a church fundraiser at Ombo. MPs who travelled with the DP tell of a meeting where he cautioned against attacking Raila or speaking negatively about his community. The reason, one explained, is that Ruto does not trust TNA to back him for presidency after Uhuru exits.

After ICC withdrew charges against the president, an influential senator from the Rift Valley told The Standard on Saturday that, “We are watching this thing from a distance. We will have an opportunity to speak our mind; there are issues between us and our partners.”

The sentiments are reminiscent of the storm Bomet Senator Charles Keter kicked off when he complained strongly about the role Ruto ‘fixers’ played in implicating the DP in ICC cases. As Namwamba parried accusations of planning to ‘auction’ the Orange party to Jubilee, he jokingly told The Nairobian that his accusers should also consider the flip side of their allegations. “Suppose I am Raila’s emissary helping the party grow bigger?” He posed.

This was after he had had a meeting with Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua and ousted ODM chief whip Gideon Mung’aro. Namwamba would not respond to phone calls to shed light on thawing of relations between ODM and URP party leaders and whether he had any role to play in the prevailing state of affairs.

An MP in Raila’s inner circle points out, “I was confused when I saw Raila insisting that Namwamba should be the Secretary-General. There had been attempts, before Kajwang’ died, to kick rebels out of the party. This is because a week before the Naivasha meeting that drew the list of ODM officials Agwambo (Raila) had described Namwamba as “a stupid boy” during a function at Nyayo Stadium. Then in Naivasha, he insisted on Namwamba being nominated Secretary-General. He even complained about attacks against Namwamba (by party members).”

Political future

Lagat attributes the thawing in relations between the two as part of the DP’s strategy to succeed President Uhuru in 2022. He adds, there is a growing perception that Raila can influence the ICC’s decision on Ruto through the US, after the court dropped charges against the president.

“Raila is not sure of his political future and ODM is crumbling by the day. Raila and DP understand each other properly. Neither of them is sure of their political future. As the clock winds down, the DP’s ICC case is becoming uncertain. As Ruto prepares for 2022, we are not sure if the ICC case will affect him and if TNA will give him the kind of support they gave Uhuru. What is happening does not rule out the possibility of Ruto and Raila teaming up again. Both are uncertain about their political future,” observes Lagat.

Senator Murkomen disagrees. He says that, “The biggest problem with Raila is that he disowned Ruto when he got into problems (with ICC). His silence is telling. Raila should have reciprocated the support the DP gave him when he ran for presidency in 2007. It is this feeling of betrayal that cost Raila the presidency last year,” he opines.

While there could be hard feelings between the two, it is worth noting that Raila and Ruto were on the verge of striking a deal in the countdown to the last election before Uhuru weighed in with a more attractive offer that peeled Ruto off the ODM leader.

“Such comments and suspicions are meant to drive a wedge between TNA and URP considering that ODM is crumbling. It is the continuation of propaganda to divide TNA and URP,” explains Murkomen.

 

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