What quest for deputy from Mt Kenya means for top candidates

The first amendment to Kenya’s Independence Constitution was passed in 1964 to achieve two major objectives. First, it established and declared Kenya a republic, meaning that the Queen of England ceased to be our titular head of state.  Secondly, the change established the constitutional positions of president and vice-president in which, like the American presidential model, the president would be the head of state and government, and the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The holder of the office of vice-president would be appointed by the president and serve as the principal assistant and be the first in the line of succession. 

Under the 2010 Constitution, the position of the vice-president was upgraded to a deputy president whose holder would be nominated as a running mate of the successful presidential candidate and automatically serve as president for the remainder of the presidential term in the event of death, resignation, removal or incapacitation of the elected president. The immediate implication of the 2010 upgrade of the vice-presidency was to turn the choice of a running mate position into a high stakes matter in the countdown to a presidential election. Accordingly, the highly publicised controversy in Raila Odinga-led Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition and the less talked about one in William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance should not come as a surprise except for the fact that whilst Kenya has more than 40 ethnic communities, the decision on whether the leading presidential contestants will pick Kikuyu running mates is the most potent fuel to this controversy. For a critical understanding, two historical dimensions and one political reality are worth noting.

Since 1964, the positions of president or vice-president have been held by ethnic Kikuyus save for the short period in 2002 when Musalia Mudavadi served as President Daniel Arap Moi’s Number Two. Secondly, in all competitive presidential elections since 1992, the votes cast in Central Kenya, which comprises the former Central Province and the current Nakuru, Laikipia, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu counties have, determined the winner or the runners-up in the race. The political reality of the August presidential election stems from the fact that this would be the first time that a competitive election will be held without a major candidate from Gema country; put differently, this is the first time since 1992 that the Gema country will be a battle ground in the presidential election. Since ethnic Kikuyus account for over 70 per cent of the votes in Gema, it should be easy to understand why the decision on whether or not the running mate of Raila and Ruto should be an ethnic Kikuyu is a heavy one, hence what I call the Kikuyu factor in the 2022 presidential race.